In the first half of 2012, the output value of the tractor industry fell

According to the mid-year data released by the China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association recently released by the tractor industry, in the first half of 2012, the output value of the tractor industry in China showed a decline in both output value, the profitability of the enterprise was low, and the industry enterprises faced a situation of overcapacity.

In the first half of this year, the total output value of the tractor industry decreased to a total of 46.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.21%; the cumulative sales value of 46.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.14%, and a rate of 99.58%; the cumulative export delivery value. 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.11%.

From January to June, the accumulated sales of large and medium-sized tractors in the industry totaled 291,100 units, down 6.2% year-on-year, and the rate of decline slightly rebounded from the previous month. Of the 16 large and medium-sized companies that dragged down, 8 grew, and 8 declined.

From the perspective of total sales: 25-40 hp tractor sales fell 7.27% year-on-year, the total reduction of 6585 units; 40 ～ 70 hp tractors were basically the same as last year; 70 ～ 100 hp tractors fell the fastest, down 26.42%, total The volume has decreased by 18,000 units (8.08% of the industry's total); sales of tractors above 100 hp have grown rapidly, up 66.49% year-on-year, and the total volume has increased by 10,900 units (4.74% of the industry's total).

From the perspective of product structure, 25-40 hp tractors are still in a dominant position, accounting for more than 1/3 of the total sales of the industry. The occupation rates of 40-70 hp, 70-100 hp, and 100 hp or higher are 28.48% and 22.5% respectively. And 11.88%, of which 70 to 100 horsepower fell 6.2 percentage points, a larger decline, an increase of 5.19 percentage points above 100 horsepower. The increase or decrease in each horsepower segment reflects changes in market demand.

The strong growth of 100-130 hp tractors has become a new highlight of the industry this year. In the first half of the year, the total sales volume of the 100-130 horsepower tractor industry was 24,000 units, the industry growth rate was 76.81%, and the increment reached 10,500 units (accounting for 4.6% of the total sales of the industry), making up for the total decline of 90-100 horsepower. Obvious structural adjustment. This horsepower segment, the industry's top two giants China's one trailer and Foton Lovol sales of nearly 20,000 units, accounting for 80.7% of the industry, has a clear monopoly in the industry.

The total production and sales volume of small four-wheel tractors decreased by 6.62% and 6.26% respectively year-on-year, and the total production and sales volume of hand-held tractors decreased by 33.46% and 35.19% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline continued to deepen.

In the first half of 2012, the total export volume of large and medium-sized tractors industry increased by 8.38% year-on-year, cumulative exports of the small four-wheel tractors industry decreased 19.46% year-on-year, and cumulative exports of the hand-held tractors industry decreased by 60.04% year-on-year. Exports of large and medium-sized tractors have increased, but the increase has slowed down. The exports of small four-wheeled tractors and hand-held tractors have continued to decline, and the decline has slightly rebounded.

The profitability of enterprises is low According to the statistics of key enterprises, from January to May, among the 21 key enterprises in the industry, the sales revenue is increasing by 6 year-on-year, and the negative growth is 15. The total profit is increasing by 8 year-on-year, and the negative growth is 13, Among them, there are 7 loss-making enterprises, accounting for 1/3 of the industry, and 2 low-profit enterprises (the total profit is below 100,000 yuan).

From January to May, the industry's comprehensive sales profit margin was 3.86%, of which 15 were lower than the industry average, accounting for 2/3 of the industry's total, indicating that the industry's overall profitability was low.

From January to May, the backbone industries of the tractor industry realized a total sales income of 43.268 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.37 percent year-on-year, a deceleration of 1.79 percentage points from the previous month; cumulative total profits of 1.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.38 percent, a 1.69 percent increase over the previous month. Percentage.

From January to May, the accounts receivable of the tractor industry was 9.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, accounts payable 8.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.92%; the significant increase in accounts payable indicates that the tractor's own pressure capacity is limited. The pressure began to be transmitted to the upper reaches of the industry, which made the funds in the upstream supply chain tight. In the long run, it will inevitably form a vicious circle and cause the supply chain to advance into a new round of industry reshuffling.

Judging from the funds occupied by accounts receivables and finished goods inventory, these two indicators accounted for 21.1% and 11.14% of the industry's sales revenue, respectively, an increase of 2.3% and 4.78 percentage points year-on-year respectively. The two funds together accounted for sales revenue. 32.24%.

The industry is facing overcapacity In recent years, due to the continuous increase of national agricultural machinery subsidies, the tractor industry has grown at a faster rate. Domestic and foreign tractor manufacturing companies have successively carried out industrial layout, increased investment, and the production capacity has expanded too quickly. Domestic investment projects will be completed and completed this year and next year. Capacity will double and the industry will face excess capacity.

China Unicom, Foton Lovol, Deer Tian Tuo, Shandong Shifeng, Chery Heavy Industries, Tianjin Tractor Plant, Aike, Deutz and Case New Holland have fully completed production and will have nearly 370,000 units. The production capacity is close to the record high of 388,000 units sold in 2011.

It is reported that although most of the above projects have not yet reached the production period, they all basically have a certain production capacity. In 2012 and 2013, they will be concentrated in the completion period. Once the market is started, the production capacity can be formed immediately; the existing production capacity and new The estimated production capacity of the production project should be more than 900,000 units, which is 2-3 times the market demand, and the homogenization is serious. Therefore, there is no doubt that the overcapacity in the industry, the new round of competition will accelerate the industry reshuffle .

From the perspective of the overall operation of the industry in the first half of the year, changes in macroeconomic conditions at home and abroad, and overcapacity, the tractor industry will enter an adjustment period of 3 to 5 years from 2012, and industry reshuffling is inevitable.

Experts in the industry suggest that enterprises should make full preparations for ideology, face and accept all kinds of difficulties and challenges with a positive attitude, clarify their thinking and direction, and do a good job in the research and understanding of the main selling market, market segments, and professional markets. The real needs of agricultural users, looking for new business opportunities, expanding marketing channels, speeding up product development and brand building, strategy can be actively sought for multi-party cooperation, the introduction of strategic investors, access to capital markets, corporate bonds, M & A upstream and downstream industries Chains, production and sales, and other forms of cooperation, in the adjustment period to find their own breakthroughs, avoid weaknesses, and constantly adjust the operating position, in order to establish a foothold in the fierce market competition.