In the second half of the year, the auto market is focusing on structural price wars or weakening

Although the auto market began to show signs of "fever" from April to May this year, and the production and sales volume has been negative from the previous month until July, but from the increase in the net profits of car companies that have released semi-annual report, the vast majority of all the way to the red, the auto market Rejuvenation and capital markets are in stark contrast to the buoyancy of the automotive sector.
In the second half of the year, the auto market will become the focus of attention. The industry generally believes that the market base has been elevated last year. The overall growth rate of the auto market will gradually return to a reasonable level this year, but the overall stability of the auto market will continue to show new changes. .
At the end of the price war, or weakening, there was a tragic experience of the surge in inventories in 2008. Starting from July of this year, whether it was the initiative to cut production and sales targets or use high-temperature passive production, this year's hot summer, most domestic auto companies have strengthened their inventory control. Control ability.
According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July, the inventory of auto companies (excluding inventory at retail links) increased by 44.400 thousand. As of the end of July, the inventory of auto companies reached a total of 549,100, and the total inventory was at a reasonable level.

"Not all cars have inventories." Jia Xinguang, an automotive analyst, believes that joint venture brands were very cautious at the beginning of this year and their target growth did not exceed 20%. Production and sales in the first half of the year were relatively balanced, and some enterprises still had tight production capacity, but some other companies In particular, self-owned brand car companies have set a target of 50% to 100% or even higher sales at the beginning of the year, and have not taken into account changes in the policy. Once the market declines, the attacks on these companies will be fatal.
In fact, in August, vehicle manufacturing companies located in South China, Central China, and Southwest China mostly entered high-temperature holiday periods that ranged from 10 days to more than half a month. In addition to a small number of car companies located in the north of the country, nearly 60% of the major automobile companies can use this rare period of regulation to digest the dealers and inventory in transit. The vehicle manufacturer consciously and actively adjusts the pace of production, which is a change in the auto market in the second half of this year.
As for the price trend of the auto market, Jia Xinguang believes that the auto market appears to be a partial price war, mainly in low-priced models, mainly under 100,000 yuan. “And the price war is mainly concentrated in the third quarter, and there is nothing to fight at the end of the year. significance."
Many market participants also believe that with the expiration of the old-for-new policy, the purchase tax reduction and other policies that expire at the end of the year, consumers are likely to concentrate on buying cars, and the auto market is expected to end at the end of the year. In this case, the car price will be stronger.
Focus on structural adjustment This year, the auto market has already passed half of the market. However, from the perspective of the consumer market and the capital market of automotive products, there has been a small upsurge in the pursuit of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly products, and the second half of the year has been guided by national policies. There is a great momentum.
Xu Changming, director of the Economic Information Center of the National Information Center, believes that this year's major national policy is not to stimulate auto consumption. This year, the structure will be adjusted to encourage new energy, energy conservation, and environmental protection next year. The auto market is likely to undergo structural changes in the second half of the year.
In fact, since the implementation of the first “Energy-saving Products Benefiting People's Project” energy-saving vehicle promotion catalogue, 71 energy-saving automobile products in July have increased by 11.75% compared with June. The second batch of energy-saving vehicle promotion catalogues including more self-owned brands and high-end joint-venture brand products have been announced last week. So far, there are already 132 models that can enjoy a government subsidy of 3,000 yuan.
“The sales of some energy-saving and environmental-friendly models will increase. As the joint venture company understands that half of the products have reached the standards for energy-saving and environmentally-friendly cars and that there are relatively few independent brands, structural changes in the second half of the year may be even more pronounced.” Xu Changming said. .

This trend has been seen in the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. From the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers from January to July this year, the market share of passenger cars with self-owned brands has dropped. In the first 7 months, passenger car brands sold a total of 3.5601 million vehicles, which accounted for 46.43% of the total sales of passenger cars. The occupancy rate decreased by nearly 1% from January to June.
It is undeniable that last year's state's stimulus policies for the auto market have played a significant role in promoting auto brands' car prices. However, the sloppy and optimistic judgment made that 60% of self-owned car makers failed to complete the planned plan in the first half of this year.
This year's auto market environment is different from last year. Under the premise of enjoying the same incentive policy as joint venture brands, the self-owned brand car companies with energy-saving technologies will face even more severe challenges in the second half of the year.