As the demand for soda ash industry in the downstream exceeds the growth rate of soda ash, and the international soda ash prices are high, domestic soda ash producers have already been able to meet full market demand. Currently, soda ash prices have risen rapidly. The ex-factory price has risen from the beginning of the year. 12.5%. By the end of 2008, the speed of production capacity will be lower than the increase in demand, and the situation in short supply will be clear. Therefore, the price of soda ash may rise to a new level. The soda ash industry will enter a new round of business cycle, and supply shortages will remain until the end of 2008.
Macro-control curbs capacity expansion
The soda ash industry in China has maintained high growth since 2000, and its average annual growth rate has remained above 11%. In the macro-control policy, the “Currently Stopping Low-Level Duplicate Construction Catalogue†issued by the National Development and Reform Commission stipulates that it is forbidden to newly build ammonia-alkali devices with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons or less, and 200,000 tons or less of alkali-connected devices. On February 27, 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Soda-Building Industry to Promote the Healthy Development of the Industry." It requires relevant departments at all levels to correctly handle the relationship between economic development and resources and the environment and strictly control the new soda industry. Increase production capacity. The continuous expansion of production capacity has been curbed. Since 2004, the increase in production of soda ash has been maintained at around 1.7 million tons annually. The increase in production capacity in 2007 was mainly due to projects put into operation in the early stage, and the increase is expected to be around 1.2 million tons. Therefore, the proportion of increase in production in 2007 was the lowest since 2000, with a growth rate of about 7%.
The main production capacity increased in 2007 was the 600,000 tons combined alkali project built by Hubei Yihua in Chongqing and it has been put into production in November. Shandong Haihua and Tangshan Sanyou Chemicals have all reconstructed and added 200,000 tons of capacity. They also started production in October. The full release of these capacities will not be until 2008. The major production capacity increased in 2008 includes the second phase of Qinghai Alkali Industry's 900,000 tons and Jinjing Technology's 1 million tons of projects. Since these two projects were completed by the end of 2008, the production capacity will be released until 2009. Therefore, the capacity growth rate will decline further before the end of 2008.
Urbanization leads to relocation of companies and their impact on supply
In the past 20 years, China’s urbanization has developed rapidly. Many soda ash companies, such as Dahua Soda Plant, Tianjin Soda Plant, Jiaozuo Xinan, Fuzhou Yaolong, Hangzhou Longshan, Kunshan, Jiangsu, Jiangsu Huachang, and Hefei Sifang, have been used as residential or commercial areas. Surrounding, inevitably face the problem of relocation, will have a greater impact on the supply of soda ash in China in the next few years. Dahua Soda Plant has begun to implement relocation. The output of 2006 will drop by 36.29%. The output will be greatly affected in 2007. At the same time, Tianjin Municipal Government will spend RMB 5.3 billion to relocate the Tianjin Soda Plant.
Downstream industry significantly faster than the soda ash
From the production and sales balance of soda ash, we can see that since 2006, the apparent growth rate of consumption has exceeded the growth rate of soda ash production, and the data from January to October in 2007 still maintain this trend, indicating that the downstream demand has increased. Speed ​​exceeds the growth rate of soda production for two consecutive years. From the export data, in recent years, Japan and South Korea gradually withdraw from soda production, while the soda ash in China due to high freight rates, the competitiveness of the surrounding in our country fell, China's exports of soda ash have experienced greater growth. In 2006, the export volume reached 18.1 million tons, accounting for 11.3% of China's output. However, due to strong domestic demand in 2007, soda ash producers still could not meet domestic demand at full capacity. Even under the international supply of soda ash, they are unable to expand exports. Exports have apparently contracted, with data from January to October showing an export growth rate of -7.1%.
According to industry data, the growth rate of soda ash is significantly lower than that of the downstream industry. Since 2007, the main downstream industries of soda ash have shown good growth momentum. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2007, flat glass increased by 14.6%, daily glass increased by 26.8%, and alumina production increased by 49.7%. The chemical pesticides industry grew by 22.2%, synthetic detergents increased by 11.5%, and soda ash production grew by only 11.0% from January to October, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of the downstream industries.
Soda Ash Industry Enters a New Cycle of Business Cycle
Soda ash downstream industry needs to maintain growth, while the international soda ash prices are high, domestic soda ash companies have been at full capacity and are still unable to meet market demand. Currently, soda ash prices have risen rapidly. From September 2007, the price of soda ash increased at a faster rate, rising from RMB 10 to RMB 20/t per month to RMB 50/t per month. At present, the ex-factory price without tax has reached 1350 yuan/ton, which is 12.5% ​​higher than the ex-factory price of 1,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
By the end of 2008, the production speed of the production capacity will still be lower than the increase in demand, and the situation of supply exceeding demand will be clear at a glance. Therefore, we judge that prices may rise to a new level. Due to the rapid growth in demand and limited capacity growth, the soda ash industry has entered a new round of economic cycle. Conservative estimates of tight supply before the end of 2008 will remain. Considering that the release of production capacity for production in 2008 requires a process, this cycle may continue into the first half of 2009.
Macro-control curbs capacity expansion
The soda ash industry in China has maintained high growth since 2000, and its average annual growth rate has remained above 11%. In the macro-control policy, the “Currently Stopping Low-Level Duplicate Construction Catalogue†issued by the National Development and Reform Commission stipulates that it is forbidden to newly build ammonia-alkali devices with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons or less, and 200,000 tons or less of alkali-connected devices. On February 27, 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Soda-Building Industry to Promote the Healthy Development of the Industry." It requires relevant departments at all levels to correctly handle the relationship between economic development and resources and the environment and strictly control the new soda industry. Increase production capacity. The continuous expansion of production capacity has been curbed. Since 2004, the increase in production of soda ash has been maintained at around 1.7 million tons annually. The increase in production capacity in 2007 was mainly due to projects put into operation in the early stage, and the increase is expected to be around 1.2 million tons. Therefore, the proportion of increase in production in 2007 was the lowest since 2000, with a growth rate of about 7%.
The main production capacity increased in 2007 was the 600,000 tons combined alkali project built by Hubei Yihua in Chongqing and it has been put into production in November. Shandong Haihua and Tangshan Sanyou Chemicals have all reconstructed and added 200,000 tons of capacity. They also started production in October. The full release of these capacities will not be until 2008. The major production capacity increased in 2008 includes the second phase of Qinghai Alkali Industry's 900,000 tons and Jinjing Technology's 1 million tons of projects. Since these two projects were completed by the end of 2008, the production capacity will be released until 2009. Therefore, the capacity growth rate will decline further before the end of 2008.
Urbanization leads to relocation of companies and their impact on supply
In the past 20 years, China’s urbanization has developed rapidly. Many soda ash companies, such as Dahua Soda Plant, Tianjin Soda Plant, Jiaozuo Xinan, Fuzhou Yaolong, Hangzhou Longshan, Kunshan, Jiangsu, Jiangsu Huachang, and Hefei Sifang, have been used as residential or commercial areas. Surrounding, inevitably face the problem of relocation, will have a greater impact on the supply of soda ash in China in the next few years. Dahua Soda Plant has begun to implement relocation. The output of 2006 will drop by 36.29%. The output will be greatly affected in 2007. At the same time, Tianjin Municipal Government will spend RMB 5.3 billion to relocate the Tianjin Soda Plant.
Downstream industry significantly faster than the soda ash
From the production and sales balance of soda ash, we can see that since 2006, the apparent growth rate of consumption has exceeded the growth rate of soda ash production, and the data from January to October in 2007 still maintain this trend, indicating that the downstream demand has increased. Speed ​​exceeds the growth rate of soda production for two consecutive years. From the export data, in recent years, Japan and South Korea gradually withdraw from soda production, while the soda ash in China due to high freight rates, the competitiveness of the surrounding in our country fell, China's exports of soda ash have experienced greater growth. In 2006, the export volume reached 18.1 million tons, accounting for 11.3% of China's output. However, due to strong domestic demand in 2007, soda ash producers still could not meet domestic demand at full capacity. Even under the international supply of soda ash, they are unable to expand exports. Exports have apparently contracted, with data from January to October showing an export growth rate of -7.1%.
According to industry data, the growth rate of soda ash is significantly lower than that of the downstream industry. Since 2007, the main downstream industries of soda ash have shown good growth momentum. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2007, flat glass increased by 14.6%, daily glass increased by 26.8%, and alumina production increased by 49.7%. The chemical pesticides industry grew by 22.2%, synthetic detergents increased by 11.5%, and soda ash production grew by only 11.0% from January to October, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of the downstream industries.
Soda Ash Industry Enters a New Cycle of Business Cycle
Soda ash downstream industry needs to maintain growth, while the international soda ash prices are high, domestic soda ash companies have been at full capacity and are still unable to meet market demand. Currently, soda ash prices have risen rapidly. From September 2007, the price of soda ash increased at a faster rate, rising from RMB 10 to RMB 20/t per month to RMB 50/t per month. At present, the ex-factory price without tax has reached 1350 yuan/ton, which is 12.5% ​​higher than the ex-factory price of 1,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
By the end of 2008, the production speed of the production capacity will still be lower than the increase in demand, and the situation of supply exceeding demand will be clear at a glance. Therefore, we judge that prices may rise to a new level. Due to the rapid growth in demand and limited capacity growth, the soda ash industry has entered a new round of economic cycle. Conservative estimates of tight supply before the end of 2008 will remain. Considering that the release of production capacity for production in 2008 requires a process, this cycle may continue into the first half of 2009.
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