Since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", China's methanol industry has experienced rapid development. By the end of 2011, the country's methanol capacity, production, and apparent consumption amounted to 46.54 million tons, 26.27 million tons, and 31.844 million tons, respectively. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in 2012, China will have more than 5.5 million tons of new methanol capacity put into operation. It is estimated that China's total methanol production capacity will exceed 52 million tons, accounting for more than 43% of the world's total methanol production capacity.
In the rapid development of the methanol industry, the contradiction between domestic methanol overcapacity is also increasingly prominent. Statistics show that from 2006 to 2011, the average utilization rate of methanol production capacity in China was only 51%. In 2010, the average operating rate of methanol enterprises in China fell further to 45.6%. More grimly, under the influence of the slowdown in world economic growth, the traditional methanol consumption fields such as formaldehyde, methyl tert-butyl ether, acetic acid, dimethylformamide, and glyphosate are difficult to grow rapidly, and they are driven by the consumption of methanol. The effect is weakening. As a clean fuel, dimethyl ether, due to the "city gas dimethyl ether national standards" on "dimethyl ether can not be blended with liquefied petroleum gas," the provisions of the same restrictions, it is also difficult to serve as a new engine of methanol consumption.
As for methanol fuel for vehicles, the national standard for low-proportion methanol gasoline and the standards system for additives, modulation methods, and transmission and distribution specifications have not yet been established, and high-proportion methanol gasoline is difficult to popularize because it has no vehicles available. In addition, the safety and environmental protection of methanol fuel for vehicles is still controversial, and the promotion of methanol fuel also faces considerable uncertainty and resistance. Therefore, the use of methanol fuel for vehicles is still far from being really popularized. At least 3 to 5 years, the industry's contribution to methanol consumption is not optimistic.
In contrast, methanol to olefins are very promising. First, China has achieved commercialization of the Shenhua Baotou project with an annual output of 600,000 tons of coal through methanol to olefins (DMTO) and Zhongyuan Petrochemical's annual production of 600,000 tons of methanol to olefins (MTO) projects, both showing good market competitiveness and Profitability brings considerable economic and social benefits.
Second, due to resource constraints, China's annual supply and demand gap of olefins and polymers exceeds 10 million tons. With the continuous increase in the dependence of China's petroleum on foreign countries, the development of non-oil olefins not only meets the overall needs of the national energy security strategy, but also meets the long-term interests of several major oil groups. Sinopec Group took the lead in building the MTO project, indicating that methanol-to-olefins will not encounter as much resistance as the promotion of methanol fuel for vehicles.
Third, compared with petroleum olefins, methanol-to-olefins investment is small, the area is small, the source of raw materials is wide, the production cost is low, the investment recovery period is short, and it is not restricted by the supporting refinery, and it can realize the diversification of investment subjects and maximize investment efficiency. It will help guide and use private capital and promote the industry to achieve good and fast development through full competition.
Finally, there is a large demand for olefins and there is no longer any excess capacity. With the reduction of petroleum resources and the increase of rigid demand for refined oil, the supply of olefinic raw materials will become increasingly tense. Affected by this, the long-term tight supply of ethylene (or olefins) will continue, and methanol-to-olefins have a broad space for development.
Therefore, it is recommended that the country must strictly control the total volume of the methanol industry. The provinces lacking coal and gas in the eastern part will no longer approve new, modified or expanded methanol projects in principle; in areas with abundant coal, electricity, water resources and environmental capacity in the west, they should also adhere to the principle of “total quantity control and equal replacementâ€. Eliminate outdated production capacity and approve new projects as appropriate.
Second, we must moderately develop methanol to olefins. The effect of methanol to olefins on digesting excess methanol production capacity is very obvious. Assuming that the country will build 10 projects with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of methanol to olefins, it will be able to digest 18 million tons of methanol each year, add 6 million tons of olefins, and save more than 60 million tons of oil.
Third, we must prudently approve the coal to methanol to olefins project. In the current situation that domestic methanol production capacity has been seriously over-abundance, the new coal-to-methanol to olefin project cannot conceal the fact that repeated construction, disguised circle occupation of coal resources, and the intensified methanol overcapacity contradiction.
Fourth, enterprises should be encouraged to form a joint flagship of methanol production, methanol, olefins, and olefins deep processing through joint reorganization, equity participation, etc., to share benefits and share risks. This will be of great benefit to the healthy development of the methanol industry, coal chemical industry and even the entire petrochemical industry.
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