According to the latest statistics, from January to October 2005, the cumulative sales of commercial vehicles in the industry were 1,466,375, a year-on-year decrease of 1.23%. Among them, the number of trucks increased by 4.14% over the same period of last year; semi-trailer tractors, non-integrated trucks, passenger cars and passenger vehicles were not complete vehicles, which were down 45.55%, 2.30%, 5.53% and 3.50% respectively over the same period of last year. The car market showed signs of fatigue. From the perspective of sales structure, trucks and trucks occupy part of the commercial vehicle market
More than 80% of the total, bearing the expectations of the entire commercial vehicle, passenger cars and passenger vehicles are not complete vehicles about 15%, only 3.21% of semitrailer tractors. How to further expand the market space for trucks, break through the bustle of the passenger car market, and open up a smooth road for passenger cars, requires all commercial vehicle companies to think rationally, find positions, and do their best.
The expectations of trucks carrying commercial vehicles
Heavy truck: Strength competition. In recent years, the heavy-duty truck (including vehicle and chassis) market has continued to grow. Although the growth trend has gradually slowed down from “blowoutâ€, the industry’s focus on the heavy truck market has not been reduced. After all, heavy trucks lead the technical direction and development trend of trucks. Competition in the heavy truck market is a big competition in the overall strengths of the company's technology, products, manufacturing, marketing, and capital. In the first three quarters of 2005, the heavy truck market experienced the first negative growth in eight years, and the heavy truck industry has reached a new "turning point." After eight years of market competition, the new pattern of the heavy truck market, "Dongfeng catches up with FAW, Wuxiong strives for hegemony, and new sharpness is unwilling to be lonely," has taken shape. From January to October 2002, FAW Group sold 105,505 heavy trucks, which accounted for half of the industry's heavy trucks. Dongfeng Motor sold 72,250 vehicles. The sales ratio between FAW and Dongfeng was 10:7. From January to October 2005, Dongfeng Motor sold heavy trucks. (Including chassis and semi-trailer) 62,030 units, FAW Group sold 50,330 heavy trucks (including chassis), FAW and Dongfeng's sales ratio changed to 5:6, and Dongfeng and FAW reversed the trend. Dongfeng won the throne of "heavy truck king" in one fell swoop and FAW ranked second. Beiqi Foton, China National Heavy Duty Truck and Shaanxi Automobile Group ranked 3 to 5, with the top five market concentration being 82.92%.
The market structure of the "hegemony for hegemony" in the heavy truck market will not change in the short term, but the overbearing dispute between the five males is even more intense. In the face of the overall negative growth in the heavy truck market, CNHTC and Shaanxi Automobile Group went against the market, with January-September sales growth of 52.44% and 14.08%, respectively. Follow-ups such as Hubei Sanhuan, Anhui Jianghuai, and Chongqing Hongyan also showed good growth, which cannot be discounted. At present, there are two points in the heavy-duty truck market that should attract special attention: First, the models above 19T will be the growth point for heavy-duty trucks. Secondly, heavy trucks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Chongqing Hongyan’s Steyr platform and Fuman’s Auman, etc., will be the strong forces that will impact the market, especially the competition of the Steyr platform. White heat.
Zhongka: Migration in the west. Although the China Card market has continued to decline in recent years, the Chinese commercial vehicle market is based on China Card. A few years ago, the so-called heavy-duty trucks and light trucks were mostly extensions of the China Card platform, and even some of them were products of “small tonnage†or “large-tonnageâ€. Therefore, there is a considerable difference between the actual performance of the China Card Market and the statistical data. In essence, the fluctuation of production and sales growth in the China Card Market shows a regular pattern of fluctuations with the domestic economic growth year-on-year. At present, Dongfeng and FAW are still in the leading position in the China Card Market. Dongfeng Company has won the first place in the industry with heavy trucks and China Cards, and attributed to its strategic positioning of “Truck King†which “built China's first brand of commercial vehicles†a few years ago. This resulted in a series of product structural adjustments. Analysing sales data for the first three quarters of 2005 will reveal an interesting phenomenon. Among the top 10 companies, Dongfeng, Sichuan Yinhe, Chengdu Trump, Chongqing Lifan, Hubei Sanhuan, Shaanxi Automobile Group, etc. Enterprises have absolute advantages. This just confirms the view of the migration of the west of the China Card Market. It can be foreseen that the western market will become a bridgehead for the China Card Market. With the competition in the industry based on the western market as an important base, the resources such as the assembly and spare parts of the China Card will also be moved westward, thus creating a group of companies with considerable strength. Card manufacturer. Judging from the current development trend, it can still be said that whoever grasps the pulse of the western market, whoever is expected to dominate the Chinese card market.
Light truck: The canoe of hope. From January to October 2005, the industry sold 616,600 light trucks, an increase of 7.06% year-on-year, which was higher than the increase in heavy trucks and China Cards. Light trucks are the main force in the truck market. At present, in the light-duty-card market, the plots of the "Warring States, Struggle, and Struggle," initiated by Beiqi Futian, Dongfeng, Jiangling, Qingling, Jianghuai and Yuejin, are still being interpreted. In the first three quarters, Beiqi Foton sold 205,985 vehicles, a slight decrease of 0.15% year-on-year, and the market share was 36.79%. Beiqi Foton started by relying on “light trucks†and remained the industry leader; Anhui Jianghuai quickly took advantage of the light truck chassis. A total of 63,550 light trucks and chassis were sold, ranking second; Dongfeng Motor sales of 57,429 units, ranking third in the industry, light trucks and chassis growth simultaneously, of which light trucks increased by 18.89%, chassis growth 31.8%, "Dongfeng "Light-duty trucks, with their solid strength and well-known brand effect, are gradually becoming stronger; Jiangxi Jiangling entered the market segment at a low price, creating its own market area; Yuejin Group, as the manufacturer of the first domestic light truck "Yuejin", Long-term adherence to the light-duty truck market, although it does not appear to be the limelight, has been ranked in the top 50, making opponents dare not take it lightly. In addition, Shandong Kaima, Great Wall Motors, and FAW Hongta all showed signs of growth in the light truck market. The light truck market, with its large market capacity, grasps an important direction for the development of the truck market towards the two poles, and is no exception.
Micro-card: The torque of the fulcrum. Do not underestimate the micro-cards. From January to October, the sales of minivans in the country totaled 179,708, an increase of 14.86% year-on-year; sales of non-integral vehicles for minivans were 8,064, an increase of 112.88% year-on-year. Both increased more than commercial vehicles and the entire With the average increase in the industry, the micro-card market is not only a hot spot in the commercial vehicle market, but also a bright spot in the entire automotive market. At present, Changan Group ranks first in the micro-card market, with sales of 51,897 units in the first nine months, an increase of 15.01% year-on-year; SAIC-GM Wuling ranked second, with sales of 29,729 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%; ranked 3 to 4 Among them, Hafei Motors and Changhe Motors sold 18,397 vehicles and 15,451 vehicles, an increase of 48.94% and 29.31% year-on-year, respectively, while Hebei Zhongxing Automobile, which ranked fifth, sold 12025 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 5.43%. .
Although micro-cards cannot compete with heavy-duty trucks and medium-sized cards in terms of their technical level and market value, the market capacity of micro-cards is currently second only to light-duty trucks, and they have more room for volume. Therefore, micro-cards should not be "because they are light." The micro-card is like a fulcrum in the truck market. Archimedes has a famous saying: If you give me a fulcrum, I can shake the entire earth. For the micro-card market, the role of the fulcrum and the torsion of the lever must not be ignored.
Semi-hung: the strength of traction. Semi-trailer tractors exhibit greater tonnage requirements than "heavy trucks," which further reflects the company's overall strength and professionalism. The basic feature of the semitrailer tractor market is that only a handful of competitors are available, but all of them are extremely sturdy and powerful. No one can underestimate it.
The semi-trailer market with quasi-trailer trailers with a total mass of 25 tons or less currently competes with 6 companies. The first sales in the first three quarters were Beiqi Futian, followed by North Benz, Anhui Hualing, Dongfeng, Sichuan Yinhe and FAW. group. It is worth mentioning that "half way to kill Cheng Bingjin" - Anhui Hualing Heavy-duty Truck Co., Ltd., last year, the base count was zero, the first three quarters of this year to kill the top three, the rapid development. It is reported that the company was established in May 2003 with a registered capital of 240 million yuan. At present, it has formed a production capacity of 15,000 heavy-duty vehicles and has a long-term technical cooperation relationship with Japan's Mitsubishi and Isuzu.
The semi-trailer market with quasi-trailer trailers with a total mass of more than 25 tons and less than or equal to 40 tons is presently presented by China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, China FAW Group, Dongfeng Motor, Shaanxi Automobile Group and Beiqi Foton. This is the first three quarters of the market. It showed a sharp contrast between “slash and boom coexistenceâ€. Sinotruk and Shaanxi Automobile Group were down 48.15% and 52.54% respectively year-on-year, while FAW Group, Dongfeng Company and Beiqi Foton Group grew 180.06% year-on-year respectively. , 193.91%, 307.92%, indicating that the market competition is extremely fierce and it is expected that a new market pattern will soon be formed.
Semi-trailer market with quasi trailer trailers with a total mass of more than 40 tons. At present, only seven companies participate in the competition. The FAW Group is temporarily in a dominant position. Chongqing Hongyan and China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. are quite equal, followed by Shaanxi Automobile Group, while Dongfeng, Chongqing Tiema, and Beiqi Foton are still at the starting stage.
From January to September, the total sales of semi-trailer tractors in the industry was only 41569 vehicles, accounting for 3.12% of the commercial vehicle market share. It can be said that the whole semi-trailer tractor market is in its infancy, with a small base and many variables. From the perspective of product trends, the tractors will develop in the direction of greater traction. How the tractor-trailer demonstrates its traction in the commercial vehicle market remains to be seen.
The road to the bus is smooth and smooth
From January to October 2005, 140,904 buses were sold in the industry, which was a year-on-year decrease of 5.53%. The number of non-completed passenger vehicles sold was 70,642, a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The passenger car market was characterized by frequent fluctuations and small amplitudes. Constrained by weak demand, it is difficult to see rapid growth, but it will not be a complete mess. How can the bus industry break through the difficulties of the market at high speed, and seek its own living space?
Large passengers: how much can we do? In the first three quarters of 2005, the country's large passenger cars sold 12,953 vehicles, an increase of 13.86%, despite the fastest growth in the three types of passenger cars, but only accounted for 10.14% of the passenger car market share. It is an indisputable fact that the large passenger car market is not big. However, the high added value of large passenger cars and good profitability are the pursuit of bus companies' dreams. At present, there are about 25 companies in the country that are involved in large customer segments. From January to September, Zhengzhou Yutong ranked first in the sales of large passenger vehicles, an increase of 35.72% year-on-year, with sales of 4210 units and a market share of 32.5%; 2nd Dandong Huanghai sold 2,467 units, a year-on-year increase. 0.49%; Anhui Ankai and Shanghai Shenwo which ranked in the 3rd to 4th place had sales of less than 1,000 cars; the companies ranked behind in the top 15 were among hundreds of cars sold, among which the larger increase was Guilin. Passenger cars increased by 100%, Yangzhou Yaxing increased by 81.25%, and Dongfeng Company increased by 47.84%.
At present, there are more than 10 companies engaged in the production and sale of non-completed vehicles for large passenger vehicles. The total sales from January to September are 6,452. The market base is not as high as that of big customers. FAW Group, Fujian New Fuda and Dongfeng Company are in the top three positions.
In general, the technical level and cost of passenger cars are directly proportional to each other. Passenger car technology development and China's passenger transport also have some lag in the actual demand for passenger cars. Especially in the case of a limited total passenger car market demand, bus companies must not only reduce internal costs, but also pay attention to the functional costs, reliability costs, safety costs, and comfort costs involved in passenger car transport. The higher the better, the better the price/performance ratio. In the future, products with low operating costs and high returns will be competitive. Therefore, for large-sized companies, do not expect sales volume to be large, but instead pursue the improvement of quality, brand, returns, and expected benefits.
Zhong Ke: Do not be modest. At present, there are nearly 40 companies participating in the competition in the China-Ocean Market. The competition in the Chinese passenger market is more intense than that in the big passenger and light passenger markets. From January to September, the industry sold 15,109 medium-sized passenger vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%, of which Suzhou Jinlong Group sold 5,057 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 2.58%, ranking first; sales rankings ranked 2 to 8 in turn. Yes: Zhengzhou Yutong, Yangzhou Yaxing, Anhui Ankai, Jiangsu Yaxing, Dandong Huanghai, Hebei Changke, Dongfeng Corporation, the growth rate is very different, the sales of Yangzhou Yaxing and Dandong Huanghai decreased by 21.63% year-on-year respectively. % and 45.49%; sales of Zhengzhou Yutong, Anhui Ankai, Jiangsu Yaxing, Hebei Changke and Dongfeng Company increased by 11.64%, 46.31%, 53.67%, 120.85%, and 105 respectively year-on-year. .89%, it is the high growth of these companies that will play a buffer role in the decline of the Chinese passenger market. In the context of the overall decline in the market, this shift, one after another, is a sign of fierce and tragic competition in the market.
In the first three quarters, the industry sold a total of 29,322 non-integrated medium-sized passenger vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 14.21%. Dongfeng Company ranked first, followed by Anhui Jianghuai, Hunan Automobile, FAW Group and Fujian Xinfuda. . Among the top five, only Fujian Xinfuda's sales increased by 14.68% year-on-year, while sales of the remaining 1-4 members decreased by 18.35%, 20.40%, 21.40%, and 22.47% respectively. The overall decline in the sales of non-integrated passenger vehicles indicates that the rate of chassis autonomy of bus companies is increasing. Therefore, the traditional passenger vehicle chassis advantage enterprises should quickly adjust the product structure, and transform the self-production resources advantages of the chassis into the development advantages and market competitive advantages of the bus. For example, if Dongfeng Corporation can effectively integrate its own advantages in bus and chassis resources, the potential in the passenger vehicle market will be enormous.
China has a vast territory, with a large number of small and medium-sized cities, a large regional disparity, and a large demand for differentiated passenger transportation. This is conducive to the professionalization of bus companies and the development of market segments. The professional development trend of the passenger car industry is becoming clearer and brighter. Focusing on cultivating mainstream products is the direction of bus companies. To this end, Zhongke Enterprises must not simply go for the homogenous middle way, and simply imitate or even copy other people’s products and business models. It is easy to lose its own characteristics and lose its comparative advantage. At present, the passenger car industry urgently needs a group of enterprises with strong professionalism, outstanding features, and good operational capabilities to establish and build a brand image of passenger cars in order to maintain the industry’s competitive order and stimulate industry competition.
Light passengers: Do not be light. From January to October 2005, 110,113 light-duty buses were sold by the industry, which, despite a year-on-year decrease of 7.64%, accounted for more than 70% of the passenger car market; and 31,632 non-integrated light-duty buses were sold, an increase of 8.58% year-on-year, occupying passenger cars. The share of the complete vehicle market exceeds 40%. Obviously, light passengers have the greatest support for sales in the passenger car market, and light passengers should not be self-interested. At present, in the light passenger market, light passenger vehicle sales rank first in the Jinbei Automobile Group, its market share is about 40%, and the second to fifth enterprises are Jiangling Motors, Beiqi Foton, Yuejin Automobile and Southeast ( Fujian) cars. Generally speaking, there are 40 companies that have incorporated light buses into the industry statistics. However, the light passenger market has been described as being “mismatched and unmatched.†This is why the statistics of light passengers are always the “puzzling mysteriesâ€. In accordance with industry classification standards, standardize statistical classifications, clarify the fuzzy boundaries of the light passenger market, and restore the true market conditions so as to facilitate the correct analysis and judgment of the market. Many enterprises still need to work together.
The order of the top five non-complete vehicles for light passengers was Dongfeng Motor Corporation, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile, Yuejin Automobile, Wuhu FAW Yangzi and Wuhan Zhongyu, among which Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. ranked first in sales increased 21.99% year-on-year, and the non-staff was The market share of the complete vehicle market is 46.4%, which has a considerable advantage. Similar to the Chinese passenger market, if it can extend the advantages of the passenger car chassis to the whole vehicle, the competitive advantage is obvious.
What deserves special mention is that for commercial vehicles in China, the overseas market will be an area that needs to be highly valued. In recent years, China's exports of commercial vehicles have increased significantly. According to customs statistics, from January to July 2005, the export volume of passenger cars increased by 37.92% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by 157.63% year-on-year. It was also reported that the export of Dongfeng trucks from January to September increased by 381. 11%, from which China's exports of commercial vehicles is evident. China's commercial vehicles, especially trucks, have their own independent brands. After more than 50 years of development, the technological level, technological level, and product performance are basically in sync with the international market, and they also have considerable price advantages. The timing of large-scale export is maturing. Exports will gradually become a hot spot in the commercial vehicle market. In essence, commercial vehicles are more autonomous than passenger vehicles today when they advocate the development of their own brands. China’s commercial vehicles have long had truly national brands such as “Dongfeng†and “Liberation†and independent brands. Therefore, China's commercial vehicles should vigorously implement the "go global" strategy, establish a Chinese brand image, and take the lead in the international market to fight for their due status and market share.
In short, with China's steady economic growth and further opening to the outside world, commercial vehicles are full of business opportunities in both the domestic and international markets. However, it should also be noted that in the commercial vehicle market, "the peaches in the low places have already been picked up." Commercial vehicle companies must pay a higher price if they want to pick up the peaches in the high places. How can commercial vehicles play their role in the dualism of the auto market? How do trucks carry the trust of the commercial vehicle market? How can passenger cars break the market and open up a smooth road? How can commercial vehicle companies combine their own characteristics, play comparative advantages, meet market diversification needs, and vigorously adjust the structure, develop new products, and seek differentiated positioning? How can Chinese companies actively explore overseas markets? And so on, issues like this will always be in front of them. Assume that the commercial vehicle market has unlimited business opportunities. In the face of predictable business opportunities, commercial vehicle companies must not only have sufficient confidence and strength, but must also have sufficient wisdom and business plans.
Then, what are the prospects for the commercial vehicle market in 2005 and in 2006? (Please refer to "Commercial Conditions" of "Compulsory Commercial Vehicles": Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook and Outlook)
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