With the US economy declining and other factors affecting the pharmaceutical industry, the growth of patented drug sales in the United States will be the slowest this year.
IMSHealth released its annual forecast on Wednesday, pointing out that the US formula drug market is the largest in the world, but it is expected that the growth of formula drug sales will only be 1% to 2% in 2008, between 287 billion U.S. dollars and 297 billion U.S. dollars. The growth forecast is 2% to 3%. IMS, based in Norwalk, Connecticut, has been monitoring the sales of formula drugs for 50 years.
Consumers reduce prescription drugs
The drugs sold by major pharmaceutical companies in the 1990s dominated sales. However, the franchise expired, and sales have continued to decline in recent years. Currently, new medicines are urgently researched and new products are introduced. Although pharmaceutical companies have traditionally been able to adapt to the economic slowdown, recent studies have shown that consumers have reduced the purchase of formula drugs.
Pfizer announced last week that the company’s flagship drug, lipid-lowering Lipitor, dropped 13% in the third quarter. Kaiser Family Foundation's research report this month also showed that in the past year, nearly one-third of patients preferred to reduce the number of visits to doctors, compared with only 24% in April.
IMS predicts that drug sales will grow at 1% to 2% in the United States next year. Global sales in 2009 are also expected to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, similar to this year.
Increase in sales volume in developing countries over developed countries
In developing countries such as China, Brazil and India, the demand for medical care will increase, so the increase in sales is expected to be between 14% and 15%, and the increase will continue to be higher than in developed countries. Murray Aitken, senior vice president of IMS, said: "This increase was not available before, and it has not come easily, but it is true.
In this huge pharmaceutical market, it is expected to be worth US$24 billion in value because of the expiration of the patent expired next year. The expiration of patent rights in recent years has also contributed to the rise of generic drugs, because generic drugs sell much less than proprietary drugs.
Despite this, sales of generic drugs in 2009 were only expected to be stable, at about 68 billion US dollars, because of intense competition in the industry, forcing generic drug manufacturers to cut prices, so that marginal profit decreased.
Next year, new drug materials will be approved at historical lows
IMS predicts that the new drugs approved for launch in 2009 will be historically low, ranging from 25 to 30 species. In addition, most of these new drugs are targeted at rare diseases and their sales growth potential is limited.
IMS estimates that patented medicines issued by specialists will account for nearly 70% of the total market growth in the next year; patent medicines issued by general practitioners will only grow by 2% to 3%.
After Merck & Co.'s painkillers Vioxx and GlaxoSmithKline's diabetes drug Avandia caught the attention of the United States, federal regulators have stepped up supervision of people taking drugs. Just last month, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) suspended the approval of several new industries proposed by the three major pharmaceutical companies, including Abbott Laboratories' two new drugs (one is an analgesic and the other is Hypolipidemic drugs) Pfizer Pharmaceuticals An anti-osteoporosis drug, Eli Lilly & Co., a dilute blood drug.

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