Petroleum and petrochemical
At a high level of prosperity. Trend Forecast: The oil industry maintains a high economic climate, and the petrochemical industry's economy is declining. Attention points: Changes in oil prices and petrochemical prices.
coal
It is currently in the top zone of the cycle and faces the risk of a declining economy. Trend Forecast: The price shows a trend of high volatility. It is predicted that there will be a certain drop after March this year, but it will not plunge. The average price for this year is expected to decline by 3% from last year. Concern points: The industry level is concerned about the fall in prices after March. Company-level concern 1, Guoyang Xinneng acquisition; 2, Xishan coal and electricity acquisition; 3, Orchid Branch created Daning mine production.
Non-ferrous metals
The overall peak of prosperity. Zinc and gold: Mid-boom rise; Copper and alumina: Late rise in economy; Tin, nickel: Decline period; Electrolytic aluminum industry: Initial period of economic recovery. Trend Forecast: Colored: The overall high level oscillates. Zinc, gold: short-term shocks, promising in the medium term; copper, alumina: high levels of shock or decline. Tin, nickel: oscillated down. Aluminum electrolytic industry: continuous recovery. Attention points: 1. The dynamics of various metal supply and demand fundamentals. 2, the futures market inventory, warehouse receipts and their changes. 3. The latest report of international large-scale metal research institutions. 4, unexpected events, such as supply disruptions, futures market fluctuations and so on.
Steel
The industry is at the bottom of the business cycle. In 2006, the domestic steel production capacity is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year, which is a drop of 9 percentage points from 2005. The industry supply and demand situation has improved. However, the low concentration is still the biggest problem that plagues the industry. The timing of the industry reversal depends on the progress of M&A integration in the domestic steel industry. Trend Forecast: The progress of steel production capacity integration is more than expected. Domestic steel companies will see a noticeable decline in their first-quarter earnings, but their results will rebound. It is expected that the price of cold-rolled steel sheet will still be plagued by the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year, and the launch of mergers and acquisitions and industry consolidation policies may lead to the bottom of the industry before the end of 2006. Attention points: 1. The policy of curbing excess steel production capacity will be introduced in the near future. 2. The merger and acquisition of Baosteel and Bayi Iron & Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and Kunming Steel. 3. The annual report and the quarterly report are announced. If the stock price falls, the opportunity for the establishment of large-scale steel blue chips will come. 4. The investment opportunities brought by the expiry of warrants (such as the Wuhan Iron and Steel Warrants in June).
electric equipment
1. The degree of prosperity of power plant equipment is regulated by the National Development and Reform Commission and is not clear. 2. Transmission and substations and secondary equipment are affected by the upsurge of power grid construction and have a high degree of prosperity. Trend Forecast: The power plant equipment industry remains neutral. The market's simultaneous power transmission and transformation and secondary equipment are affected by the price cuts of raw materials, power grid construction, etc., which are better than the broader market. The trend of the industry index is stronger than that of the broader market. Points of attention: 1. Concerned about the changes in the market prices of silicon steel, copper, and aluminum for power equipment raw materials. 2. Pay attention to the changes in the domestic power supply and demand contradiction. 3. Pay attention to the construction progress of UHV power grids. 4. Focus on foreign investment and industry restructuring.
Construction Machinery
The development environment is highly relevant to the country’s macroeconomics, investment in infrastructure, and national economic policies. Due to the influence of macro-control, the machinery industry failed to achieve better returns in 2005. Trend Forecast: In the first half of 2006, the entire machinery industry will be in a slow recovery stage, and its performance is expected to increase slightly. Attention points: 1. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, to support the rapid and sustained development of the national economy, it is necessary to provide corresponding infrastructure, energy supply facilities, and communication facilities. These developments are inseparable from mechanical equipment. support. 2, "New Rural Construction." The state has increased investment in the construction of new rural areas. Road construction, housing construction, and bridge construction are all good for the machinery and equipment industry. 3. The subject matter of mergers and acquisitions in the machinery industry is significant, and foreign strategic investment will take advantage of opportunities.
Aviation industry
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, it is expected that the supply and demand of the industry will tend to be balanced in 2006, and a large number of aircraft purchases will exert pressure on the supply of the industry in 2007 and 2008. The focus of the airlines is on the investment opportunities brought about by the appreciation of the renminbi and the fall in international oil prices. Trend Forecast: It is expected that the industry's passenger load level will increase slightly in 2006; competition will cause the industry ticket prices to continue to decline in 2006. Under the current international oil price background, domestic aviation kerosene prices are less likely to be lowered. If domestic aviation kerosene is currently maintained at 5,220 yuan per ton, domestic aviation kerosene prices in 2006 increased by 10% over 2005. Points of attention: time and content for the launch of the airport charging policy; the timing of the aviation oil price reform and the content of the launch.
Ports, shipping and highways
The growth rate of the industry slowed down, showing a slowdown in the growth rate of container throughput, highway traffic volume, and bulk cargo transportation. Trend Forecast: This trend will continue for the next six months. Concerned points: the growth rate of foreign trade import and export, the negotiation of iron ore price, the negotiation of the domestic price of goods along the coast of the sea, the progress of the delivery of container terminals in various regions, the traffic conditions of the expressway companies, and the implementation status of weight-based toll collection.
Passenger car
Passenger cars, especially cars, are still growing rapidly, and the profitability of the industry is recovering. The fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006 saw rapid growth. Trend Forecast: The rapid growth of passenger vehicles, commercial vehicle recovery growth, the price is relatively stable, the industry profitability recovery. Concern points: The effect of the automobile consumption tax reform on the demand for small-displacement vehicles and whether related companies can benefit.
Textile Industry
The economy of textile and apparel is reduced and the production capacity is further surplus. Trend Forecast: Since the enterprises rushed to export in the second half of last year, the export situation was good in the first quarter of this year, and it is expected that the industry's prosperity rate will decline rapidly from the second quarter. In view of the completion of the Sino-European, Sino-U.S. textile negotiations, the rules of the game before 2008 have been established. The high price of raw materials and quota bidding will increase industry concentration. Points of attention: The appreciation of the renminbi, the inertia of fixed asset investment, and the rising speed of the textile industry in South and Southeast Asia have affected China's textile and clothing industry.
At a high level of prosperity. Trend Forecast: The oil industry maintains a high economic climate, and the petrochemical industry's economy is declining. Attention points: Changes in oil prices and petrochemical prices.
coal
It is currently in the top zone of the cycle and faces the risk of a declining economy. Trend Forecast: The price shows a trend of high volatility. It is predicted that there will be a certain drop after March this year, but it will not plunge. The average price for this year is expected to decline by 3% from last year. Concern points: The industry level is concerned about the fall in prices after March. Company-level concern 1, Guoyang Xinneng acquisition; 2, Xishan coal and electricity acquisition; 3, Orchid Branch created Daning mine production.
Non-ferrous metals
The overall peak of prosperity. Zinc and gold: Mid-boom rise; Copper and alumina: Late rise in economy; Tin, nickel: Decline period; Electrolytic aluminum industry: Initial period of economic recovery. Trend Forecast: Colored: The overall high level oscillates. Zinc, gold: short-term shocks, promising in the medium term; copper, alumina: high levels of shock or decline. Tin, nickel: oscillated down. Aluminum electrolytic industry: continuous recovery. Attention points: 1. The dynamics of various metal supply and demand fundamentals. 2, the futures market inventory, warehouse receipts and their changes. 3. The latest report of international large-scale metal research institutions. 4, unexpected events, such as supply disruptions, futures market fluctuations and so on.
Steel
The industry is at the bottom of the business cycle. In 2006, the domestic steel production capacity is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year, which is a drop of 9 percentage points from 2005. The industry supply and demand situation has improved. However, the low concentration is still the biggest problem that plagues the industry. The timing of the industry reversal depends on the progress of M&A integration in the domestic steel industry. Trend Forecast: The progress of steel production capacity integration is more than expected. Domestic steel companies will see a noticeable decline in their first-quarter earnings, but their results will rebound. It is expected that the price of cold-rolled steel sheet will still be plagued by the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year, and the launch of mergers and acquisitions and industry consolidation policies may lead to the bottom of the industry before the end of 2006. Attention points: 1. The policy of curbing excess steel production capacity will be introduced in the near future. 2. The merger and acquisition of Baosteel and Bayi Iron & Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and Kunming Steel. 3. The annual report and the quarterly report are announced. If the stock price falls, the opportunity for the establishment of large-scale steel blue chips will come. 4. The investment opportunities brought by the expiry of warrants (such as the Wuhan Iron and Steel Warrants in June).
electric equipment
1. The degree of prosperity of power plant equipment is regulated by the National Development and Reform Commission and is not clear. 2. Transmission and substations and secondary equipment are affected by the upsurge of power grid construction and have a high degree of prosperity. Trend Forecast: The power plant equipment industry remains neutral. The market's simultaneous power transmission and transformation and secondary equipment are affected by the price cuts of raw materials, power grid construction, etc., which are better than the broader market. The trend of the industry index is stronger than that of the broader market. Points of attention: 1. Concerned about the changes in the market prices of silicon steel, copper, and aluminum for power equipment raw materials. 2. Pay attention to the changes in the domestic power supply and demand contradiction. 3. Pay attention to the construction progress of UHV power grids. 4. Focus on foreign investment and industry restructuring.
Construction Machinery
The development environment is highly relevant to the country’s macroeconomics, investment in infrastructure, and national economic policies. Due to the influence of macro-control, the machinery industry failed to achieve better returns in 2005. Trend Forecast: In the first half of 2006, the entire machinery industry will be in a slow recovery stage, and its performance is expected to increase slightly. Attention points: 1. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, to support the rapid and sustained development of the national economy, it is necessary to provide corresponding infrastructure, energy supply facilities, and communication facilities. These developments are inseparable from mechanical equipment. support. 2, "New Rural Construction." The state has increased investment in the construction of new rural areas. Road construction, housing construction, and bridge construction are all good for the machinery and equipment industry. 3. The subject matter of mergers and acquisitions in the machinery industry is significant, and foreign strategic investment will take advantage of opportunities.
Aviation industry
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, it is expected that the supply and demand of the industry will tend to be balanced in 2006, and a large number of aircraft purchases will exert pressure on the supply of the industry in 2007 and 2008. The focus of the airlines is on the investment opportunities brought about by the appreciation of the renminbi and the fall in international oil prices. Trend Forecast: It is expected that the industry's passenger load level will increase slightly in 2006; competition will cause the industry ticket prices to continue to decline in 2006. Under the current international oil price background, domestic aviation kerosene prices are less likely to be lowered. If domestic aviation kerosene is currently maintained at 5,220 yuan per ton, domestic aviation kerosene prices in 2006 increased by 10% over 2005. Points of attention: time and content for the launch of the airport charging policy; the timing of the aviation oil price reform and the content of the launch.
Ports, shipping and highways
The growth rate of the industry slowed down, showing a slowdown in the growth rate of container throughput, highway traffic volume, and bulk cargo transportation. Trend Forecast: This trend will continue for the next six months. Concerned points: the growth rate of foreign trade import and export, the negotiation of iron ore price, the negotiation of the domestic price of goods along the coast of the sea, the progress of the delivery of container terminals in various regions, the traffic conditions of the expressway companies, and the implementation status of weight-based toll collection.
Passenger car
Passenger cars, especially cars, are still growing rapidly, and the profitability of the industry is recovering. The fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006 saw rapid growth. Trend Forecast: The rapid growth of passenger vehicles, commercial vehicle recovery growth, the price is relatively stable, the industry profitability recovery. Concern points: The effect of the automobile consumption tax reform on the demand for small-displacement vehicles and whether related companies can benefit.
Textile Industry
The economy of textile and apparel is reduced and the production capacity is further surplus. Trend Forecast: Since the enterprises rushed to export in the second half of last year, the export situation was good in the first quarter of this year, and it is expected that the industry's prosperity rate will decline rapidly from the second quarter. In view of the completion of the Sino-European, Sino-U.S. textile negotiations, the rules of the game before 2008 have been established. The high price of raw materials and quota bidding will increase industry concentration. Points of attention: The appreciation of the renminbi, the inertia of fixed asset investment, and the rising speed of the textile industry in South and Southeast Asia have affected China's textile and clothing industry.
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