“The situation of transformers in 2011 is increasingly not optimistic, and people in the interview mentioned this point to the reporter without any explanation. Overcapacity, price killing, and many hidden dangers in quality, under the influence of multiple factors, the survival status of the transformer industry is in jeopardy.
If the pointer of time is reversed back to a year ago, people may not have thought that: The development of wind power suddenly slowed down during the year, nuclear power projects were suddenly hit into the “cold palace, large-scale high-speed railway construction was speeded, and at the same time special The pace of construction of high-pressure construction has slowed down... In 2011, when it was hoped for, it seemed to have evolved into a "Rhapsody" full of "Mirroring". The abrupt changes in the external environment, coupled with the self-contradictions of the transformer industry, have made this industry more passive in 2011, and have continued to reveal the bizarre phenomenon of “universality in market prices and production costsâ€.
At the same time, the increase in the cost of financing, labor costs, and the cost of running a business makes it even more difficult for this tangled industry to be on the verge of survival.
In this moment of crisis, people have to be reconsidered: Who is in the hands of the power of the transformer industry?
When will usher in "dawn?
The above topic seems to be a bit heavy. Let’s talk about the good news first: the deposit reserve ratio has finally been lowered!
Referring to this point, many company executives couldn't hide their excitement in their speech: "Although this fashion is undecided and it is not a signal of national monetary policy adjustment, it is, in any case, a step!
On December 5, 2011, the central bank decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5%. This financial news seems to be the only good news for this industry in recent days. Will the 35-month hard-won days end? Does this mean that the industry is struggling in the dark? "Dawn?
An executive of a listed company who declined to be named told reporters: “Many projects planned for construction this year were postponed or postponed. On the one hand, the pressure on the transformer company’s inventory is really small. On the other hand, transformer companies also Unable to recover accounts receivable in a timely manner, the cost of liquidity was relatively large, and the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio for 35 consecutive months, which was a major pressure for manufacturing companies.
Therefore, in the situation where the financing of the company is gradually becoming more difficult, any “crashes and signs†may become the company’s last straw for crushed camels. Therefore, due to comprehensive consideration of factors such as relieving capital pressure on companies, reducing inventory compression, and aggressively seeking down payment, many companies choose to sell products below the cost price.
“Our company's operating income dropped by as much as 30% year-on-year in 2011, and the decline in net profit was more than that. The most frightening thing is that the current bid price is actually lower than the material price, not to mention the labor force and management costs. Not only did it appear in our company, but many brothers did not like this? The executives of the listed company said so.
According to the above-mentioned sources, the sales price of the industry in 2011 will be lower than the cost price by 10% on average. Even in some companies, this figure is as high as 30%, and the normal market order has been seriously disrupted.
“Under low market prices, we often make it difficult to bid. If the bid is a loss, if there is no bid, there will be no orders. He is very helpless.
People can not help but ask, what causes this problem? It is not difficult to see that when dealing with pressures, some companies, at the expense of product quality, are doing their own tricks in production, and then selling at low prices to gain market share. In the past, companies in the industry had to follow the trend. Each of these transformer companies is a victim, but it is also a participant. Therefore, we have to say that if the industry does not form a consensus on its own snow, it is difficult for this situation to change in the short term.
When does the price dispute break?
At the end of September 2011, AQSIQ had announced sampling inspection reports for the transformer industry. According to the report, the overall pass rate of the 29 companies sampled was only 69.0%, and the product pass rate was not high. Among them, the sampling rate of large-scale enterprises' products is 75%, and that of medium and small-sized enterprises is 63.6% and 71.4%, respectively.
During the interview, the reporter learned that people pointed to the low rate of product qualifications to the grid company’s “low-price bid-winning bidding method. For this reason, the journal has also reported on it specifically. It is gratifying to note that under the multi-party appeal, the current two Big Grid Corporation has changed the past "prices have set the way for the world and has adopted a more fair and transparent "middle price bid.
It stands to reason that after the change in the bidding method, the market orientation gradually shifted from emphasis on price to emphasis on quality. However, why did the “sale price and production cost†hang up?
Industry knowledge tells the reporter that transformers are currently facing severe overcapacity pressures. Under the wide gap between supply and demand, who will write high bids in the bidding process?
According to incomplete estimates, at present, only the TBEA, Baoding Tianwei, and China Xidian 3 domestic brands have a capacity of around 600 million kVA, plus 500 kV, 220 kV, and 110 kV. As well as the production capacity of product manufacturers below 110 kV, the total capacity of the transformer industry in China is around 3 billion kVA, but the annual market demand is only about 1.3 billion kVA. The naked contradiction between supply and demand makes enterprises have to sell their own interests in the market competition.
“A lot of companies still dare not show real prices during the bidding process, so the average so-called 'middle price' still does not reflect the overall level of the industry, but what can we do? For the chaotic market order, the above company executives Said very helpless.
It is reported that in the bidding process of some countries in Europe, if the bid price of the project is too low, relevant industry organizations will intervene. However, under the current market environment in China, prices are completely market-driven. No one or any industry organization can intervene freely in product prices. Then price issues naturally become a problem of self-consumption in the industry.
In the past, some industry experts also proposed “calculating the cost of transformers from the perspective of industry fairness for users’ reference, so as to achieve a vicious competition that suppresses low-price competition. This method has actually received support from many industry players. However, due to different companies, The design principles, financing costs, labor costs, etc. are all different, so it is difficult to reach a “middle price†that is recognized by all parties.
The situation of overcapacity is severe and the market order is chaotic. Under such an aggressive market situation, if the participants do not take active self-help actions, who else will save?
Of course, the need for industry self-rescue is by no means limited to a chaotic industrial order, and core technology is another area where the industry has to save itself. For example, because China has not yet been able to break through the relevant technologies of certain key components, “the hollowing out of technology has seriously hampered the development of the transformer industry.
"If high-tech prices cannot be purchased today, related technology will make transformer enterprises more helpless if they have technical problems. The bushings can be as high as 50% of the total price of a DC converter transformer. Since related technologies have not been realized, only If foreign companies ask for prices, how do other core technologies become so worthless? The executives of the above-mentioned listed companies are angry. It is understood that the same conditions exist for insulation molded parts, silicon steel sheets and other raw materials, and the road to localization is still long. .
Some experts predict that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the transformer industry will gradually enter a period of “strategic contraction,†and the transformation of enterprises and the adjustment of product structure will be the only way. Therefore, whether it is to further increase investment, or choose to retreat from the body, can only be achieved by the company's self-rescue and salvation. In the final analysis, after all, it was because of its frequent problems that it triggered the industry's defeat. If you do not choose to save yourself, who will save?
If the pointer of time is reversed back to a year ago, people may not have thought that: The development of wind power suddenly slowed down during the year, nuclear power projects were suddenly hit into the “cold palace, large-scale high-speed railway construction was speeded, and at the same time special The pace of construction of high-pressure construction has slowed down... In 2011, when it was hoped for, it seemed to have evolved into a "Rhapsody" full of "Mirroring". The abrupt changes in the external environment, coupled with the self-contradictions of the transformer industry, have made this industry more passive in 2011, and have continued to reveal the bizarre phenomenon of “universality in market prices and production costsâ€.
At the same time, the increase in the cost of financing, labor costs, and the cost of running a business makes it even more difficult for this tangled industry to be on the verge of survival.
In this moment of crisis, people have to be reconsidered: Who is in the hands of the power of the transformer industry?
When will usher in "dawn?
The above topic seems to be a bit heavy. Let’s talk about the good news first: the deposit reserve ratio has finally been lowered!
Referring to this point, many company executives couldn't hide their excitement in their speech: "Although this fashion is undecided and it is not a signal of national monetary policy adjustment, it is, in any case, a step!
On December 5, 2011, the central bank decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5%. This financial news seems to be the only good news for this industry in recent days. Will the 35-month hard-won days end? Does this mean that the industry is struggling in the dark? "Dawn?
An executive of a listed company who declined to be named told reporters: “Many projects planned for construction this year were postponed or postponed. On the one hand, the pressure on the transformer company’s inventory is really small. On the other hand, transformer companies also Unable to recover accounts receivable in a timely manner, the cost of liquidity was relatively large, and the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio for 35 consecutive months, which was a major pressure for manufacturing companies.
Therefore, in the situation where the financing of the company is gradually becoming more difficult, any “crashes and signs†may become the company’s last straw for crushed camels. Therefore, due to comprehensive consideration of factors such as relieving capital pressure on companies, reducing inventory compression, and aggressively seeking down payment, many companies choose to sell products below the cost price.
“Our company's operating income dropped by as much as 30% year-on-year in 2011, and the decline in net profit was more than that. The most frightening thing is that the current bid price is actually lower than the material price, not to mention the labor force and management costs. Not only did it appear in our company, but many brothers did not like this? The executives of the listed company said so.
According to the above-mentioned sources, the sales price of the industry in 2011 will be lower than the cost price by 10% on average. Even in some companies, this figure is as high as 30%, and the normal market order has been seriously disrupted.
“Under low market prices, we often make it difficult to bid. If the bid is a loss, if there is no bid, there will be no orders. He is very helpless.
People can not help but ask, what causes this problem? It is not difficult to see that when dealing with pressures, some companies, at the expense of product quality, are doing their own tricks in production, and then selling at low prices to gain market share. In the past, companies in the industry had to follow the trend. Each of these transformer companies is a victim, but it is also a participant. Therefore, we have to say that if the industry does not form a consensus on its own snow, it is difficult for this situation to change in the short term.
When does the price dispute break?
At the end of September 2011, AQSIQ had announced sampling inspection reports for the transformer industry. According to the report, the overall pass rate of the 29 companies sampled was only 69.0%, and the product pass rate was not high. Among them, the sampling rate of large-scale enterprises' products is 75%, and that of medium and small-sized enterprises is 63.6% and 71.4%, respectively.
During the interview, the reporter learned that people pointed to the low rate of product qualifications to the grid company’s “low-price bid-winning bidding method. For this reason, the journal has also reported on it specifically. It is gratifying to note that under the multi-party appeal, the current two Big Grid Corporation has changed the past "prices have set the way for the world and has adopted a more fair and transparent "middle price bid.
It stands to reason that after the change in the bidding method, the market orientation gradually shifted from emphasis on price to emphasis on quality. However, why did the “sale price and production cost†hang up?
Industry knowledge tells the reporter that transformers are currently facing severe overcapacity pressures. Under the wide gap between supply and demand, who will write high bids in the bidding process?
According to incomplete estimates, at present, only the TBEA, Baoding Tianwei, and China Xidian 3 domestic brands have a capacity of around 600 million kVA, plus 500 kV, 220 kV, and 110 kV. As well as the production capacity of product manufacturers below 110 kV, the total capacity of the transformer industry in China is around 3 billion kVA, but the annual market demand is only about 1.3 billion kVA. The naked contradiction between supply and demand makes enterprises have to sell their own interests in the market competition.
“A lot of companies still dare not show real prices during the bidding process, so the average so-called 'middle price' still does not reflect the overall level of the industry, but what can we do? For the chaotic market order, the above company executives Said very helpless.
It is reported that in the bidding process of some countries in Europe, if the bid price of the project is too low, relevant industry organizations will intervene. However, under the current market environment in China, prices are completely market-driven. No one or any industry organization can intervene freely in product prices. Then price issues naturally become a problem of self-consumption in the industry.
In the past, some industry experts also proposed “calculating the cost of transformers from the perspective of industry fairness for users’ reference, so as to achieve a vicious competition that suppresses low-price competition. This method has actually received support from many industry players. However, due to different companies, The design principles, financing costs, labor costs, etc. are all different, so it is difficult to reach a “middle price†that is recognized by all parties.
The situation of overcapacity is severe and the market order is chaotic. Under such an aggressive market situation, if the participants do not take active self-help actions, who else will save?
Of course, the need for industry self-rescue is by no means limited to a chaotic industrial order, and core technology is another area where the industry has to save itself. For example, because China has not yet been able to break through the relevant technologies of certain key components, “the hollowing out of technology has seriously hampered the development of the transformer industry.
"If high-tech prices cannot be purchased today, related technology will make transformer enterprises more helpless if they have technical problems. The bushings can be as high as 50% of the total price of a DC converter transformer. Since related technologies have not been realized, only If foreign companies ask for prices, how do other core technologies become so worthless? The executives of the above-mentioned listed companies are angry. It is understood that the same conditions exist for insulation molded parts, silicon steel sheets and other raw materials, and the road to localization is still long. .
Some experts predict that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the transformer industry will gradually enter a period of “strategic contraction,†and the transformation of enterprises and the adjustment of product structure will be the only way. Therefore, whether it is to further increase investment, or choose to retreat from the body, can only be achieved by the company's self-rescue and salvation. In the final analysis, after all, it was because of its frequent problems that it triggered the industry's defeat. If you do not choose to save yourself, who will save?
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