In the past two years, the Chinese auto market has grown at a speed that has caused the global auto industry to be staggering. According to the statistics compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") in the first 11 months of this year, there have been accumulated sales of 16.3954 million vehicles. In 2010, the Chinese auto market is expected to achieve an annual sales of 18 million vehicles. Although the increase has narrowed compared to 2009, it will still reach 32%.
At the end of the year 2010, under various uncertainties, the forecast for the Chinese auto market in 2011 has become a mandatory course for corporate CEOs and industry professionals. Looking ahead to 2011, the growth rate of China's auto market continues to grow rapidly? Or is it steady? Or is it negative growth?
From December 7 to 13, the "First Financial Daily" and Gasgoo.com conducted a seven-day investigation on this topic. As of the end of the investigation, there were 3,156 industry participants.
The survey results show that the Chinese auto industry's expectations for the increase in the market for the next year have not been highly unified and there are big differences. However, there is basically a consensus that the growth rate will slow down next year. 85% of people in the industry believe that the growth rate of the Chinese auto market will slow down to less than 15% in 2011. The biggest factor influencing sales growth is the introduction of stimulus policies. At the same time, the survey found that China's second and third-tier markets will become the largest level of growth in the next year, and this year's performance of luxury cars will continue to be the largest segment of the next year, and the challenges of independent brands in the next year will be greater than the opportunities.
Behind the forecast of the increase in the auto market next year, there is another issue that leads people to think deeply that China is rapidly entering the automobile society. The rapid increase in automobile sales in a short period of time contributes to GDP and promotes the development of related industries in the entire industry chain. At the same time, the "car disease" of the automobile society begins to show, and the excessively rapid increase in market sales and car ownership for energy, environmental protection, transportation, etc. Bring a series of problems, and this will also be the test that the auto industry must face in the future.
Watch one:
Over 80% of respondents believe that the auto market growth rate will be halved in the above survey results. For the 2011 auto market expectation, the industry views are mixed, 85% of industry insiders believe that the growth rate of the Chinese auto market in 2011 will slow to 15% In the meantime, even some pessimists are expected to see negative growth. However, there is basically a consensus that the auto market will slow down next year.
With regard to specific growth forecast, among the 3,000 industry insiders, the market is expected to grow positively next year, and only 14% of people are overly pessimistic about the market. The mainstream view is that the growth rate of China's auto market will be between 5% and 15% next year.
Among them, those who tend to think that the growth rate range of 5% to 10% accounted for 29%, and the voting rate took the lead; another 24% predicted that they will maintain the development rate of 10% to 15%. In addition, those who are more cautious are underestimating the growth rate of the market in the next year to less than 5%. The share of this group is 18%.
Although the final year-round production and sales figures have yet to be released, multi-agency agencies have already made predictions. Both SAIC and Gasgoo.com forecast that production and sales may exceed 18 million vehicles this year, an increase of 32% or so. Even with a slight pessimistic forecast, this year's total production and sales will be about 17.6 million vehicles, an increase of about 30% year-on-year. .
As a result, overall, compared with this year's increase, more than 80% of people believe that the growth rate of China's auto market next year will be at least halved, ie, below 15%.
This is similar to the forecast results of another domestic automotive information agency, Xinhuaxin International Information Consulting (Beijing) Co., Ltd. Xinhua Xinhua predicts that the sales volume for 2011 will be approximately 19.86 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.7%; of which, passenger vehicle sales will reach 15.14 million; commercial vehicle sales will reach 4.41 million.
Watch two:
Stimulation policy withdrawal slowed down as the main reason for the factors leading to the auto market slowdown in 2011, many in the industry believe that there are many factors that slow down, including multiple reasons for the withdrawal of stimulus policies, inflation, demand overdrafts, rising oil prices, and monetary tightening.
From the results of the polling survey, the largest proportion of China's auto sales slowdown was the gradual withdrawal of stimulus policies with a turnout rate of 28%. Secondly, the increase in the cost of vehicles caused by rising oil prices will also become another major factor influencing the overall market changes, which has been recognized by 21% of the people. Apart from these two major factors, 18% and 10% respectively expect that the increase in inflation and monetary tightening will also drag down the overall performance of the auto market next year.
It is worth mentioning that only 16% believe that the blowout of the Chinese automobile market in the past two years will advance the overdraft market and affect the end-user consumption next year. This shows that the industry generally believes that the adjustment of the policy may not significantly affect the advancement of demand. The release was somewhat in contradiction with the high voter turnout rate that affected the auto market.
In early 2009, under the influence of multiple factors such as the global economic crisis, the Chinese government introduced the "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" to encourage consumption in the automotive industry and promulgated many preferential policies such as purchase tax, automobile transportation to the countryside, trade-in replacement, and so on. Among them, the purchase tax was halved for the current year, and the preferential policy was continued in 2010, but it was reduced to a quarter.
At the end of the year, there was constant news about the withdrawal or shrinking of various preferential policies. The purchase tax reduction policy has almost been confirmed to be cancelled next year. According to information released by relevant persons from the National Development and Reform Commission, the deadline for final application for the old-for-new trade-in subsidies is January 31, 2011, and it is highly likely that the application will be cancelled. It is still suspense whether the policy of car-to-country policy changes, but there are still many rumours of cancellation.
Industry insiders believe that once these policies are cancelled, they will undoubtedly have a direct impact on the current end market. Before the government's position is fully understood, the withdrawal of stimulus policies has become a major factor for the industry to maintain a wait-and-see attitude toward next year's auto market.
Watch three:
The second-tier and third-tier markets and the luxury car market are optimistic that even if the Chinese auto market next year has a lot of uncertainties, the performance of the second-tier and third-tier markets and the luxury car market, which has been outstanding in this year, continues to be positive.
The survey shows that as many as 81% of people believe that China's second-tier and third-tier markets will become the largest increase in the next level of the market. The first-line market that performed well this year was only optimistic about 10% of the people, slightly higher than the 9% of the voting rate in the fourth-tier and below markets.
The reason is that more people in the industry believe that the first-line markets such as Beijing-Guangzhou, Shanghai-Shenzhen, etc., which were first developed, have begun to mature gradually after major efforts by major manufacturers in recent years, and high-speed growth has been difficult to sustain and increase. The speed is generally lower than the current second-tier and third-tier markets will become the norm. At present, the second and third tier markets, which have shown strong development momentum, especially in the regions of central and western provinces and autonomous regions, have decided to develop further promotion strategies, channels, and product introductions. At the same time, with the development of these regional economies, the increase in per capita income, the demand for cars is entering a new expansion period, so there is a great room for growth in the next few years.
For the segment market, this year's fast-growing luxury car market is optimistic about most surveyors and industry insiders, and believes that it will become the largest growth segment in 2011. For China's full-fledged luxury car market, JP Morgan Chase issued a forecast report earlier this year that China's luxury car market share will increase dramatically. Investigation agency J. D. Power predicts that the sales of luxury cars in China will double again this year.
Xiao Xiaojun, executive deputy general manager of FAW-Volkswagen Audi Sales Division, gave a sales forecast for the entire year: The total sales of luxury cars in China this year are expected to reach nearly 700,000 units, an increase of 70% year-on-year. At the same time, most industry experts also stated that with the continuous rise of China’s wealthy class, the momentum of the development of the Chinese luxury car market at a level higher than the overall increase in the market will continue to be maintained over the next decade or even longer, including domestic production. The market share of luxury cars will further increase.
Aspect 4:
Independent brand opportunities and challenges coexist. Independent brands have been focusing on low-end market competition. The survey results show that 54% of people believe that the challenges that independent brands will face next year will be greater than the opportunities. Only 28% of optimistic people said that the opportunity is greater than the challenge.
Those who are concerned believe that in the last two years, independent brands have expanded their production capacity. Once the market's overall pace of development has slowed down, and the withdrawal of stimulus policies, it is very likely that a serious overcapacity situation will occur, resulting in idle capacity and excess inventory. And price war will bring great pressure on independent brands. At the same time, the trend of continued low-end product positioning in joint ventures is still increasing. Due to stronger guidance in brand appeal, if the productivity of joint venture products spreads to the low end, the market share of self-owned brands will be seriously affected. Threatened.
Optimists believe that the leap-forward development of the second and third tier markets and the consumer’s awareness of the brand are not as strong as the first-line market, providing the independent brands with a greater space for development. At the same time, in the brand cultivation in recent years, the visibility of self-owned brands has been greatly improved. Moreover, the government will provide greater financial support to independent auto makers in terms of independent research and development and innovation, and will continue to be more in the end consumer market. More tax incentives for indirect support.
Another voice in the industry is that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the market share of self-owned brand passenger cars will increase to more than 40%, and the capacity utilization rate of the respective main vehicle companies can basically be maintained at 80% or higher. As a result, the challenges that the independent brands will face next year will not be as serious as the feared ones think.
At the end of the year 2010, under various uncertainties, the forecast for the Chinese auto market in 2011 has become a mandatory course for corporate CEOs and industry professionals. Looking ahead to 2011, the growth rate of China's auto market continues to grow rapidly? Or is it steady? Or is it negative growth?
From December 7 to 13, the "First Financial Daily" and Gasgoo.com conducted a seven-day investigation on this topic. As of the end of the investigation, there were 3,156 industry participants.
The survey results show that the Chinese auto industry's expectations for the increase in the market for the next year have not been highly unified and there are big differences. However, there is basically a consensus that the growth rate will slow down next year. 85% of people in the industry believe that the growth rate of the Chinese auto market will slow down to less than 15% in 2011. The biggest factor influencing sales growth is the introduction of stimulus policies. At the same time, the survey found that China's second and third-tier markets will become the largest level of growth in the next year, and this year's performance of luxury cars will continue to be the largest segment of the next year, and the challenges of independent brands in the next year will be greater than the opportunities.
Behind the forecast of the increase in the auto market next year, there is another issue that leads people to think deeply that China is rapidly entering the automobile society. The rapid increase in automobile sales in a short period of time contributes to GDP and promotes the development of related industries in the entire industry chain. At the same time, the "car disease" of the automobile society begins to show, and the excessively rapid increase in market sales and car ownership for energy, environmental protection, transportation, etc. Bring a series of problems, and this will also be the test that the auto industry must face in the future.
Watch one:
Over 80% of respondents believe that the auto market growth rate will be halved in the above survey results. For the 2011 auto market expectation, the industry views are mixed, 85% of industry insiders believe that the growth rate of the Chinese auto market in 2011 will slow to 15% In the meantime, even some pessimists are expected to see negative growth. However, there is basically a consensus that the auto market will slow down next year.
With regard to specific growth forecast, among the 3,000 industry insiders, the market is expected to grow positively next year, and only 14% of people are overly pessimistic about the market. The mainstream view is that the growth rate of China's auto market will be between 5% and 15% next year.
Among them, those who tend to think that the growth rate range of 5% to 10% accounted for 29%, and the voting rate took the lead; another 24% predicted that they will maintain the development rate of 10% to 15%. In addition, those who are more cautious are underestimating the growth rate of the market in the next year to less than 5%. The share of this group is 18%.
Although the final year-round production and sales figures have yet to be released, multi-agency agencies have already made predictions. Both SAIC and Gasgoo.com forecast that production and sales may exceed 18 million vehicles this year, an increase of 32% or so. Even with a slight pessimistic forecast, this year's total production and sales will be about 17.6 million vehicles, an increase of about 30% year-on-year. .
As a result, overall, compared with this year's increase, more than 80% of people believe that the growth rate of China's auto market next year will be at least halved, ie, below 15%.
This is similar to the forecast results of another domestic automotive information agency, Xinhuaxin International Information Consulting (Beijing) Co., Ltd. Xinhua Xinhua predicts that the sales volume for 2011 will be approximately 19.86 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.7%; of which, passenger vehicle sales will reach 15.14 million; commercial vehicle sales will reach 4.41 million.
Watch two:
Stimulation policy withdrawal slowed down as the main reason for the factors leading to the auto market slowdown in 2011, many in the industry believe that there are many factors that slow down, including multiple reasons for the withdrawal of stimulus policies, inflation, demand overdrafts, rising oil prices, and monetary tightening.
From the results of the polling survey, the largest proportion of China's auto sales slowdown was the gradual withdrawal of stimulus policies with a turnout rate of 28%. Secondly, the increase in the cost of vehicles caused by rising oil prices will also become another major factor influencing the overall market changes, which has been recognized by 21% of the people. Apart from these two major factors, 18% and 10% respectively expect that the increase in inflation and monetary tightening will also drag down the overall performance of the auto market next year.
It is worth mentioning that only 16% believe that the blowout of the Chinese automobile market in the past two years will advance the overdraft market and affect the end-user consumption next year. This shows that the industry generally believes that the adjustment of the policy may not significantly affect the advancement of demand. The release was somewhat in contradiction with the high voter turnout rate that affected the auto market.
In early 2009, under the influence of multiple factors such as the global economic crisis, the Chinese government introduced the "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" to encourage consumption in the automotive industry and promulgated many preferential policies such as purchase tax, automobile transportation to the countryside, trade-in replacement, and so on. Among them, the purchase tax was halved for the current year, and the preferential policy was continued in 2010, but it was reduced to a quarter.
At the end of the year, there was constant news about the withdrawal or shrinking of various preferential policies. The purchase tax reduction policy has almost been confirmed to be cancelled next year. According to information released by relevant persons from the National Development and Reform Commission, the deadline for final application for the old-for-new trade-in subsidies is January 31, 2011, and it is highly likely that the application will be cancelled. It is still suspense whether the policy of car-to-country policy changes, but there are still many rumours of cancellation.
Industry insiders believe that once these policies are cancelled, they will undoubtedly have a direct impact on the current end market. Before the government's position is fully understood, the withdrawal of stimulus policies has become a major factor for the industry to maintain a wait-and-see attitude toward next year's auto market.
Watch three:
The second-tier and third-tier markets and the luxury car market are optimistic that even if the Chinese auto market next year has a lot of uncertainties, the performance of the second-tier and third-tier markets and the luxury car market, which has been outstanding in this year, continues to be positive.
The survey shows that as many as 81% of people believe that China's second-tier and third-tier markets will become the largest increase in the next level of the market. The first-line market that performed well this year was only optimistic about 10% of the people, slightly higher than the 9% of the voting rate in the fourth-tier and below markets.
The reason is that more people in the industry believe that the first-line markets such as Beijing-Guangzhou, Shanghai-Shenzhen, etc., which were first developed, have begun to mature gradually after major efforts by major manufacturers in recent years, and high-speed growth has been difficult to sustain and increase. The speed is generally lower than the current second-tier and third-tier markets will become the norm. At present, the second and third tier markets, which have shown strong development momentum, especially in the regions of central and western provinces and autonomous regions, have decided to develop further promotion strategies, channels, and product introductions. At the same time, with the development of these regional economies, the increase in per capita income, the demand for cars is entering a new expansion period, so there is a great room for growth in the next few years.
For the segment market, this year's fast-growing luxury car market is optimistic about most surveyors and industry insiders, and believes that it will become the largest growth segment in 2011. For China's full-fledged luxury car market, JP Morgan Chase issued a forecast report earlier this year that China's luxury car market share will increase dramatically. Investigation agency J. D. Power predicts that the sales of luxury cars in China will double again this year.
Xiao Xiaojun, executive deputy general manager of FAW-Volkswagen Audi Sales Division, gave a sales forecast for the entire year: The total sales of luxury cars in China this year are expected to reach nearly 700,000 units, an increase of 70% year-on-year. At the same time, most industry experts also stated that with the continuous rise of China’s wealthy class, the momentum of the development of the Chinese luxury car market at a level higher than the overall increase in the market will continue to be maintained over the next decade or even longer, including domestic production. The market share of luxury cars will further increase.
Aspect 4:
Independent brand opportunities and challenges coexist. Independent brands have been focusing on low-end market competition. The survey results show that 54% of people believe that the challenges that independent brands will face next year will be greater than the opportunities. Only 28% of optimistic people said that the opportunity is greater than the challenge.
Those who are concerned believe that in the last two years, independent brands have expanded their production capacity. Once the market's overall pace of development has slowed down, and the withdrawal of stimulus policies, it is very likely that a serious overcapacity situation will occur, resulting in idle capacity and excess inventory. And price war will bring great pressure on independent brands. At the same time, the trend of continued low-end product positioning in joint ventures is still increasing. Due to stronger guidance in brand appeal, if the productivity of joint venture products spreads to the low end, the market share of self-owned brands will be seriously affected. Threatened.
Optimists believe that the leap-forward development of the second and third tier markets and the consumer’s awareness of the brand are not as strong as the first-line market, providing the independent brands with a greater space for development. At the same time, in the brand cultivation in recent years, the visibility of self-owned brands has been greatly improved. Moreover, the government will provide greater financial support to independent auto makers in terms of independent research and development and innovation, and will continue to be more in the end consumer market. More tax incentives for indirect support.
Another voice in the industry is that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the market share of self-owned brand passenger cars will increase to more than 40%, and the capacity utilization rate of the respective main vehicle companies can basically be maintained at 80% or higher. As a result, the challenges that the independent brands will face next year will not be as serious as the feared ones think.
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