The one-year plan is spring, especially for the heavy-duty truck market. The March of each year can be said to be the most "heavy" day for major truck dealers and OEMs.
Affected by factors such as the industry cycle and the slowdown of China's industrialization, the overall performance of the commercial vehicle industry has also been dragged down in the past two years. After reaching a record high in 2010, it has been experiencing negative growth for two consecutive years, and 2013 is expected to be The turning point of the heavy truck industry.
Many people in the industry believe that there is an upward trend in domestic fixed asset investment this year, and therefore they are generally optimistic about the heavy truck market. However, with the comprehensive upgrade of the National IV emission standards on July 1, the heavy truck market sales in the second half of the year may not be optimistic.
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") shows that in 2012, the total domestic sales of heavy trucks market was 636,000 units, down 28% year-on-year from 880,600 units in 2011, including Dongfeng Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group. Many commercial vehicle companies such as Jianghuai Automobile have experienced a sharp decline in their net profit in 2012. In the first two months of this year, the heavy truck market was still down by 29% year-on-year.
However, according to the statistics of the first commercial vehicle network, major domestic heavy truck companies achieved a sales volume of 86,000 units in March, a significant increase of 117% year-on-year; and in the first quarter of this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy truck market was 168,600, a decrease of 17.1%, which is a year-on-year decline. In 2012, it narrowed significantly.
A recent research report of CITIC Securities stated that the heavy truck market has passed the stage of the worst sales, and the inventory of the entire industry chain is at a relatively low level. However, the demand for heavy truck terminals has not seen a significant recovery since the first quarter of this year. After the Spring Festival, the sales season for traditional heavy trucks has increased. The number of customers visiting stores and consulting services has increased significantly. However, customers wait and see mood is stronger and more transactions are seen. The main reason is that customers are uncertain about the prospects for this year. It is expected that this part of demand will be in March. Released in April.
It is worth noting that despite the expectation of smog control and improvement of oil product standards, the probability of implementation of the heavy truck IV emission standards will increase significantly, which may result in the concentrated release of demand for heavy trucks in the second quarter, and the year-on-year sales growth is expected to turn negative. However, feedback from a number of heavy-duty truck dealers in Beijing shows that there are not many users currently willing to purchase national IV products on the market. Heavy truck IV emission standards are implemented on schedule or stimulate market sales in the short-term, but the heavy-duty truck market needs to pick up in the second half. Looks harder.
Beijing Songzhuang Town, a brand heavy truck 4S shop related to the person in charge told reporters, because the national IV engine nozzle structure is more sophisticated, the oil requirements are higher than the country III, if the oil is slightly off but easy to cause the nozzle to plug, in addition, due to The market is generally expected that the price of upgraded China IV products will increase by about 20,000 to 40,000 yuan compared with the current products, which in turn will cost thousands of yuan for high maintenance costs. Many users will be deterred from using the National IV heavy truck.
A number of heavy truck dealers stated that although the current implementation time from China IV was less than three months, according to past experience, there has been a phenomenon of “buy-in†ahead of schedule, but by the end of March this year, there was no country in Beijing III. Car "buying tide."
"Some models have sales promotion, but the price cuts are still in the normal range. We have not prepared more vehicles for the State III." The above-mentioned person in charge of the heavy truck 4S stores said that in fact, the major truck dealers at the beginning of this year At the meeting, the automaker did not emphasize that it was necessary to digest the finished product inventory of the State III before July 1. However, the “rushing wave†that the industry had widely expected before this time has not yet appeared, and the distributors have not yet obtained most of the manufacturers. The national IV product price list, as well as related information in this regard.
The National People's Congress (NPC) deputy chairman of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Group Co., Ltd., Junping, pointed out during the two sessions that the emission of commercial vehicles must meet the national IV standard. It is inevitable to upgrade the technologies and products of diesel engines and related industries. The largest and most influential components industry is the electronically controlled diesel injection system and diesel engine aftertreatment device technology. In these two core technologies, the technologies of domestic manufacturers are far from mature. Currently, they mainly rely on the products and technologies of imported and joint venture brands to meet the requirements of the National IV standard, and the cost is high.
Fuping predicts that if the commercial vehicle IV regulations will be implemented as scheduled on July 1 this year, from the country III to the country IV, the cost of medium-sized vehicles will increase by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, while the cost of heavy trucks will increase by 30,000 to 4 yuan. Ten thousand yuan.
This means that if the full implementation of the National IV standard, the engine plant and vehicle manufacturers are facing a huge cost pressure, and both the engine plant and the OEM will inevitably sacrifice some of the sales, the heavy truck industry has been The turning point of "positive" will also be postponed.
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