With the sharp fall in the Chinese auto market last year, the related parts suppliers have also experienced unprecedented impact. At the “2012 Fourth Global Automobile and Components Industry Summit Forum†held yesterday, industry experts believed that the Chinese auto market will continue to maintain its single-digit growth in the next two years, and the competition of vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers will intensify. However, there are still development opportunities in the market segments.
For the current trend of the Chinese auto market in the next two years, the participating vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers are not optimistic, and both expressed that they would maintain growth in single digits. Shen Feng, vice president of R&D of Volvo China, believes that the Chinese auto market has returned to rationality and is expected to grow at 5% to 8% this year. Zhang Yang, deputy general manager of Tianrun Crankshaft Co., Ltd., a parts supplier, predicts that the auto industry will be in a consolidation phase this year and next, with a growth rate of 5% to 10%. Chen Yan, general manager of Yanfeng Barry (Shanghai) Automotive Safety System Co., Ltd., pessimistically believes that this year's auto growth rate is only 2% to 3%.
“Although the overall growth is slow, the performance of different models will be different, such as the growth of luxury cars in the first quarter is still 30% to 40% or more.†Shen Feng said.
Zhang Yang also believes that high-end brands still have growth opportunities. In the face of intensified competition from domestic suppliers, they should look for market segments such as sports cars (SUVs) and luxury cars.
Saboni, production forecast manager of HIS Greater China, predicts that the overall sales growth rate of domestic cars will recover to 7% this year, and will reach 10% to 11% in 2013~2014. After 2014, with the continuous increase of the base number and the entire The industry's pressure on energy demand, transportation and usage costs will make it difficult for auto sales to continue to grow at a high rate. The growth rate will decline to 5% to 6%, and will drop to 2% by 2019.
"But in the market segments, we predict that the SUV market will still maintain relatively rapid growth, and the compound annual growth rate of sales in 2012~2019 will reach 12%." Sabonni said that 2012~2015 is the expansion phase of the SUV product line of the company, SUV The market share will increase from the current 16% to 21%, and after 2015, with the end of the product layout, market share will be relatively stable at 21% to 22%.
Regarding the development prospects of the auto parts market, Gaston Auto's president Chen Wenkai expressed optimism that he believes that the three major markets faced by China's parts and components companies will continue to grow, including supporting, aftermarket, and export markets. Shen Jinjun, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that how to exploit the international market vigorously in the face of declining demand from the Chinese market, parts and components will determine the future development of the company.
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