There has never been a "remaining break" in the discussion and debate about the international oil price trend in all walks of life. As one industry expert lamented: The oil price forecast is just like gambling.
After the oil price “changing face†oscillated upward and broke through the US$70 per barrel level on November 5, due to the continual spread of the financial turmoil and the declining demand caused by the global economic downturn, international oil prices continued to decline and quickly fell below each level. Barrel $60. This high-density, large-scale turbulence in oil prices is increasingly becoming a “convenient customer†in the international oil market.
At present, the increasingly widespread financial crisis is posing a challenge to the global oil industry. The world is currently experiencing the largest and most influential financial crisis since the Great Depression of 1929. Some people even call it a "financial tsunami." As the crisis is spreading from subprime mortgages to high-quality mortgages and credit crises and from the banking industry to the insurance industry, the storm is far from over. Affected by this, the European Commission has once again reduced the expected value of this year's European economic growth and expects its economic growth rate next year to be close to zero. The world economy appears to be in decline. This will inevitably lead to a drop in total oil demand, at least a downward adjustment.
After this round of drastic oil price fluctuations, all parties in the market have more clearly recognized the importance and vulnerability of oil supply-demand balance. In general, since the end of the Second World War, the global oil market has generally maintained a balance between supply and demand and has been gradually tightening. This has also become the focus of concern and concern for all parties in the market and the foundation for speculative funds to make waves. As a direct or indirect result, the market is filled with more variables and the volatility of oil prices has increased.
The large fluctuations in the oil price under the financial crisis will continue for a long time and will inevitably affect the production and business activities of the oil industry. For example, investment growth will face pressure. The data shows that since 2000, the global capital investment in upstream exploration and development has increased significantly, but the return on oil and gas reserves has only increased by 2 to 3 percentage points. This "uncoordinated" investment return will affect the enthusiasm of capital and inhibit the increase in future investment.
The decline in investment growth has had a profound impact on the oil industry. As the world's existing reserves have entered the late stage of mining, and the possibility of new reserves is becoming less and less, the oil industry is facing two major challenges of increasing reserve replacement and oil and gas production, so it is most necessary to continuously increase investment substantially. However, the increase in investment in the global oil industry goes its own way. This will inevitably result in insufficient growth of oil and gas production in the short to medium term. The gap between consumption and supply will gradually widen and the global oil supply will be more threatened.
A research report shows that although the global oil and gas projects that have already implemented funds are unlikely to be affected by the economic downturn, those projects that were originally planned to be implemented after 2012 will be affected more clearly. Recently, several oil and gas companies in the world have announced the adjustment of their respective medium-term investment projects. This will affect oil and gas projects originally scheduled to be completed between 2012 and 2015, which will in turn have a negative effect on oil supply.
Moreover, the slowdown in global oil and gas production has been confirmed. Data show that in 2006 the world oil and gas production growth rate fell to 2%, growth in the region mainly in Canada, Africa and the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Russia and the Caspian region. Among them, the growth in the Asia-Pacific region was 8%. The main support was the increase in natural gas production; the European total production fell by 5%, and the decline in oil production was twice the rate of increase in natural gas production.
In the dual role of the financial crisis and drastic fluctuations in oil prices, the global oil industry will inevitably experience a new integration. Those debts are relatively serious. Some companies with lower oil and gas quality, such as small refineries, may encounter problems in the capital chain and are pushed into the “mergers and acquisitions†market. From this perspective, the sharp fluctuation in oil prices is also an opportunity for major global oil companies to improve their strength through mergers and acquisitions.
As an important part of the world oil market, China's oil industry is also unavoidably affected by the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices, and this impact is wide-ranging and far-reaching.
The high international oil price fluctuates violently. The profits of domestic oil companies will continue to shrink as the cost rises dramatically. According to statistics, the average cost of each well in the world has increased by more than 50% in the past three to four years from the perspective of oilfield services alone. This trend is also becoming a serious challenge that China's oil companies have to face.
Affected by the rapid turmoil in the international financial market, this year, especially since the third quarter, China's petroleum and chemical industries have experienced slowing market demand, rising product inventories, and prices plummeting. According to the analysis report released recently by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the total output value of the industry in the first three quarters was 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 32%. However, since August, the growth rate of production value has slowed down significantly. In September, it even fell sharply by 9.8% from the previous month.
In order to better withstand the impact of large fluctuations in international oil prices, some experts suggested that China should speed up the price adjustment of refined products, such as half a month, or one week or even two days, once a day price adjustment, corporate power should be increased - the country to develop a Quasi-price, the company fluctuates within the medium-price range. The state retains interim price interventions, but temporary measures implemented under specific conditions are not fixed. The oil industry should consider its investment direction and investment focus from a long-term perspective and pay attention to investment efficiency.
At the same time, efforts should be made to tackle energy-saving technologies in the field of high energy consumption, vigorously increase primary energy and terminal energy use technologies, promote key technological innovations including renewable energy such as solar energy, and strive to achieve a balance between energy substitution. People enjoy more green mountains and blue sky and white clouds.
After the oil price “changing face†oscillated upward and broke through the US$70 per barrel level on November 5, due to the continual spread of the financial turmoil and the declining demand caused by the global economic downturn, international oil prices continued to decline and quickly fell below each level. Barrel $60. This high-density, large-scale turbulence in oil prices is increasingly becoming a “convenient customer†in the international oil market.
At present, the increasingly widespread financial crisis is posing a challenge to the global oil industry. The world is currently experiencing the largest and most influential financial crisis since the Great Depression of 1929. Some people even call it a "financial tsunami." As the crisis is spreading from subprime mortgages to high-quality mortgages and credit crises and from the banking industry to the insurance industry, the storm is far from over. Affected by this, the European Commission has once again reduced the expected value of this year's European economic growth and expects its economic growth rate next year to be close to zero. The world economy appears to be in decline. This will inevitably lead to a drop in total oil demand, at least a downward adjustment.
After this round of drastic oil price fluctuations, all parties in the market have more clearly recognized the importance and vulnerability of oil supply-demand balance. In general, since the end of the Second World War, the global oil market has generally maintained a balance between supply and demand and has been gradually tightening. This has also become the focus of concern and concern for all parties in the market and the foundation for speculative funds to make waves. As a direct or indirect result, the market is filled with more variables and the volatility of oil prices has increased.
The large fluctuations in the oil price under the financial crisis will continue for a long time and will inevitably affect the production and business activities of the oil industry. For example, investment growth will face pressure. The data shows that since 2000, the global capital investment in upstream exploration and development has increased significantly, but the return on oil and gas reserves has only increased by 2 to 3 percentage points. This "uncoordinated" investment return will affect the enthusiasm of capital and inhibit the increase in future investment.
The decline in investment growth has had a profound impact on the oil industry. As the world's existing reserves have entered the late stage of mining, and the possibility of new reserves is becoming less and less, the oil industry is facing two major challenges of increasing reserve replacement and oil and gas production, so it is most necessary to continuously increase investment substantially. However, the increase in investment in the global oil industry goes its own way. This will inevitably result in insufficient growth of oil and gas production in the short to medium term. The gap between consumption and supply will gradually widen and the global oil supply will be more threatened.
A research report shows that although the global oil and gas projects that have already implemented funds are unlikely to be affected by the economic downturn, those projects that were originally planned to be implemented after 2012 will be affected more clearly. Recently, several oil and gas companies in the world have announced the adjustment of their respective medium-term investment projects. This will affect oil and gas projects originally scheduled to be completed between 2012 and 2015, which will in turn have a negative effect on oil supply.
Moreover, the slowdown in global oil and gas production has been confirmed. Data show that in 2006 the world oil and gas production growth rate fell to 2%, growth in the region mainly in Canada, Africa and the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Russia and the Caspian region. Among them, the growth in the Asia-Pacific region was 8%. The main support was the increase in natural gas production; the European total production fell by 5%, and the decline in oil production was twice the rate of increase in natural gas production.
In the dual role of the financial crisis and drastic fluctuations in oil prices, the global oil industry will inevitably experience a new integration. Those debts are relatively serious. Some companies with lower oil and gas quality, such as small refineries, may encounter problems in the capital chain and are pushed into the “mergers and acquisitions†market. From this perspective, the sharp fluctuation in oil prices is also an opportunity for major global oil companies to improve their strength through mergers and acquisitions.
As an important part of the world oil market, China's oil industry is also unavoidably affected by the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices, and this impact is wide-ranging and far-reaching.
The high international oil price fluctuates violently. The profits of domestic oil companies will continue to shrink as the cost rises dramatically. According to statistics, the average cost of each well in the world has increased by more than 50% in the past three to four years from the perspective of oilfield services alone. This trend is also becoming a serious challenge that China's oil companies have to face.
Affected by the rapid turmoil in the international financial market, this year, especially since the third quarter, China's petroleum and chemical industries have experienced slowing market demand, rising product inventories, and prices plummeting. According to the analysis report released recently by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the total output value of the industry in the first three quarters was 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 32%. However, since August, the growth rate of production value has slowed down significantly. In September, it even fell sharply by 9.8% from the previous month.
In order to better withstand the impact of large fluctuations in international oil prices, some experts suggested that China should speed up the price adjustment of refined products, such as half a month, or one week or even two days, once a day price adjustment, corporate power should be increased - the country to develop a Quasi-price, the company fluctuates within the medium-price range. The state retains interim price interventions, but temporary measures implemented under specific conditions are not fixed. The oil industry should consider its investment direction and investment focus from a long-term perspective and pay attention to investment efficiency.
At the same time, efforts should be made to tackle energy-saving technologies in the field of high energy consumption, vigorously increase primary energy and terminal energy use technologies, promote key technological innovations including renewable energy such as solar energy, and strive to achieve a balance between energy substitution. People enjoy more green mountains and blue sky and white clouds.
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