The first half of the year has been put to a close. Today, no one dares to doubt the driving force of China's policies.
The first goal of the "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" earlier this year was "Achieving steady growth in automobile production and sales. In 2009, the production and sales of automobiles will strive to exceed 10 million vehicles, and the average growth rate for three years will reach 10%." Today, this goal has almost completed half. In the first half of the year, China's automobile production and sales reached an overall level of 6 million vehicles, with production and sales of 59.908 million vehicles and 6.988 million vehicles, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 15.22% and 17.69% respectively. According to this view, 10 million vehicles will be completed in the year. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers even raised its forecast to 11 million vehicles. Before that, they expected China's auto sales to be 10.2 million vehicles. (According to the habits of China's economic operation, since it has been consumed, if it does not exhibit a major tightening policy, it is estimated that it will not be able to survive. Therefore, maintaining the average growth rate of 10% in the next three years will not have much problem.)
Since the total amount reaches the target, the next step is to look at the part. What is local, in the view of enterprises or local governments, is partly to enlarge the local automobile industry. Or more specifically, it is to see who can grab and secure the top four to eight positions faster. This problem is more serious and it is your life and death. According to one of the objectives of the "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan", "M&A has made significant progress. Through mergers and reorganizations, 2-3 large-scale automobile enterprise groups with production and sales scale of more than 2 million vehicles have been formed, and 4-5 production and sales scales exceed 1 million. The number of automotive enterprise groups that have a production and sales scale of more than 90% of the market is reduced from the current 14 to less than 10 within the automotive industry group.
From this point of view, either 2 million vehicles will compete for production or sales, or strive to reach 1 million. Otherwise it is basically marginalized, and later days will be even harder.
First of all, look at 2 million cars from 2 to 3 auto groups. This is basically no suspense?? Is SAIC, FAW Group, Dongfeng Motor Group. Not to mention the performance of the past few years, just look at the first half of this year will be crystal clear. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of the year, SAIC, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor Group each sold 1.127 million vehicles, 860,800 vehicles and 800,810 vehicles. The third-placed Dongfeng Motor Group was more than 100,000 cars higher than the fourth place behind.
Then look at 1 to 5 of 1 million cars. It is also expected that the short-listed companies should be ranked in the top ten companies. From the situation in the first half of this year, the sales of 4 to 10 automotive groups are clearly divided into two categories, with sales of more than 500,000 units, including Changan Automobile Group and Beijing Automotive Group (67.90 million units and 582,200 units respectively). More than 150,000 GAC Group, Chery Automobile, BYD Auto, Brilliance Automotive and JAC Auto Group (sales were 257,300, 21,200, 176,800, 152,100 and 15,200,000 respectively).
Who will retreat?
First, look at the position of the fourth place. Originally, the Changan Automobile Group and the Beijing Automotive Industry Group fought, but the Guangzhou Automobile Group saw it as a spoiler. First is Changfeng Motor, followed by a joint venture with Fiat. In the future, there will be a joint venture or merger of Fuqi Group and Brilliance Automotive Group. While the other two were eager to be unemployed, Changan Automobile Group still managed to dry itself, and Beijing Automotive Group also wanted to buy, but it had already lost to the Brilliance Automotive Group (on Changfeng Motor). Therefore, perhaps GAC Group went ahead and went to the front of Changan Automobile Group and Beijing Automotive Group to get the position of the fourth.
Second, who has three places? Even if GAC Group reaches the fourth place, Changan Automobile Group and Beijing Automotive Group still have a considerable chance of getting 1 million tickets. In fact, it is plain, leaving only one place for other people to compete, is Chery Automobile, BYD Auto, Huachen Automobile or JAC Group?
Judging from the current situation, any of these four families will be struggling with their own strength. Yes, from more than 200,000 units in half a year to 1 million vehicles in the whole year, what is the difference between this and Tiantian. Not to mention the amount of money that needs to be laid down. If there is money, there will be enough models to come out and be accepted by the market.
One Huashan road merges and reorganizes or aligns alliances.
This is also the reason why the Anhui provincial authorities insisted that Jianghuai Automobile Group and Chery Automobile be pinched together. According to the situation in the first half of this year, the total sales volume of the two companies was 362,200, and they ranked among the top eight without any doubt. According to the development trend and plan of the Jianghuai Automobile Group and Chery Automobile this year, it will not take too long to reach a production and sales scale of 1 million vehicles in the future. Entering the top eight is tantamount to gaining the opportunity to face the "holy" directly. All kinds of policy support will be much stronger than now.
As for BYD and Brilliance Automotive Group, this future Daan Steam does not need to worry about it. Because the first, BYD has its own killer?? Electric car, so he does not need the front quarter of the amulet, directly enjoy the "auto industry adjustment and revitalization plan" in favor of new energy vehicles enough to eat. (“The scale of production and sales of electric vehicles will be scaled. The transformation of existing production capacity will result in the production of new energy vehicles such as 500,000 pure electric vehicles, rechargeable hybrid vehicles, and ordinary hybrid vehicles. New energy vehicle sales account for 5% of the total passenger vehicle sales. Left and right. Major passenger car manufacturers should have certified new energy automotive products.")
As for the Brilliance Automotive Group, he also has a way. The boss of the Brilliance Automotive Group, Yu Yumin, is very clear-hearted. Whoever wants to enter the top four will draw him, whether it be GAC Group or BAIC Group. If Sui Yumin does not accept the win, then the biggest possible obstacle is the planning of a chess game for the Northeast automobile industry. The competent department hopes that the Brilliance Automotive Group and the FAW Group will be in the same place, allowing the FAW Group to rank higher in the first camp than the SAIC Group.
What is the pattern of his management, as long as Anhui to create "Daan Steam", "Daan Steam" will be on the 8th. The result of the future is to look around, or to look around. Anyway, Daan Automobile, which is under the banner of its own brand name, is quite unique. (This is quite good. The automotive groups that hope to enter the top eight basically have their own characteristics. For example, SAIC is more than two legs and has two market layouts. FAW Group and Dongfeng Motor Group are longer than commercial vehicles. Guangzhou Automobile Group is the most profitable. Strong.)
I will wait for the reorganization of the second half of the year and even the first half of next year. Look at what these new auto groups or local governments can play out. The only hope is that you don’t want a bad company like Porsche. If you want to be big, you’re hurting yourself and becoming a prey for prey (want to eat Volkswagen and get eaten by Volkswagen).
View related topics: China's auto industry recommence mergers and acquisitions wave
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