The continued sluggish domestic refined oil market will see its third decline in the next week.
The analysis of many institutions pointed out that a new round of downward adjustment of the retail price of refined oil products around July 11-12 will inevitably come. The recent rebound in international oil prices will only make the final price adjustment continue to shrink, and will not prevent the price of refined oil from falling again.
Due to the continuous decline in international oil prices, the expectation of refined oil products has been strong, and the market demand is weak. Although the refineries of the two major oil companies are under-employed, they are still in high inventory.
The international crude oil and refined oil prices have been falling, which can be said to threaten the profits of the two oil companies of PetroChina and Sinopec.
The price of refined oil products fell into a foregone conclusion
The short-term downgrade of international crude oil does not prevent the third reduction in refined oil prices this year.
As of July 4, the average daily price of crude oil in three places (Xinta, Dubai, Brent) was US$100.373 per barrel, and the average price of the previous 22 days was US$97.555 per barrel, down 9.52% from the June 7 benchmark price.
Zhuo Chuang Information expects that due to the current 5-day working period from the current round of pricing, recently, the sharp rebound of international crude oil is unable to pull the rate of change of the three places from -9% to -4%, and oil products around July 11-12. A new round of retail price reduction is bound to come. The recent rebound in oil prices will only make the final price adjustment continue to shrink. The downgrade of refined oil next week is still a nail on the board.
In addition, the price of refined oil products will be reduced by RMB 400/ton. After the price adjustment is implemented, the ex-factory price of 0# diesel oil of the two major oil companies will also drop by RMB 400/ton, down by 5.31%; 93# diesel The ex-factory price dropped by 424 yuan / ton, down about 4.92%.
Based on this, Zhuo Chuang estimates that the price reduction of refined oil products will reduce the comprehensive income of the refining segment by 2.97%.
In an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter, Treasure Island analyst Han Jingyuan said that from the perspective of production and processing performance, Sinopec refinery showed a downward trend in March and April this year, mainly due to the impact of maintenance, the refinery operating rate is not high. However, after the completion of the overhaul, the downstream market was weak due to the continuous downward adjustment of refined oil. The traders were reluctant to accept the goods and the stocks were higher. Sinopec's first-quarter profit is expected to be ok, but the output ratio in the second quarter is relatively low.
Due to the strong expectations of the market to lower the price of refined oil products, the two major oil refineries are seriously underdeveloped.
Zhongyu Information Data Monitoring showed that Sinopec lowered its processing load due to weak demand, and the operating rate of China's main refineries continued to decline in June. By the end of June, the operating rate of the country's main refineries fell to 81.47%.
"From the point of view of sales, the current average price of the two major oil companies in the region is 93#8986 yuan / ton, 0 # at 7654 yuan / ton, while the domestic market sales price 93 # 8939 yuan / ton, 0 # diesel 7499 Yuan/ton is in a state of loss," Lu Bin, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, pointed out.
At the same time, he also said that if the price adjustment and reform commission lowered the price of 400 yuan / ton, the average price of the two major oil companies will be reduced by the same amount, then 93 #8562 yuan / ton, 0 #7254 yuan / ton, and the market sales price is currently Some of the downward adjustments have been digested, especially in the diesel market. After the three consecutive losses, the market is expected to usher in the peak of replenishment. The sales company will be adjusted for the adjustment of the sales price. The gasoline reduction is expected to be 300-400 yuan/ton. Only in the 100-200 yuan / ton, then the sales of gasoline and diesel are expected to stop profit. If the international oil price continues to rise after the downward adjustment, the market is expected to fall and then push up, the sales company's performance will rebound sharply.
Two oil companies profit or hit a four-year low
The international crude oil price has been falling, and the impact on China's two major oil companies, PetroChina and Sinopec, is self-evident.
As the largest crude oil producer in China, PetroChina generally believes that its performance is related to oil prices.
Due to the continuous decline in crude oil prices, the market also worried about the performance of PetroChina. During the same period, the stock price also fell by nearly 6%, and once fell to the lowest price in history.
Taking PetroChina’s 2009 results as an example, in 2009, due to the decline in international crude oil prices, PetroChina’s profits also fell sharply.
The PetroChina annual report showed that in 2009, the company's exploration and production segment turnover decreased by 35.3% year-on-year to 405.326 billion yuan. The main reason for the decrease was the sharp drop in crude oil prices by 38.4%.
Affected by the decline in prices of major products such as crude oil, gasoline, diesel and kerosene and changes in sales volume, PetroChina’s operating income and net profit declined in 2009, down 5% and 9.7% respectively.
"For PetroChina, the impact of lower crude oil prices on its oil exploration and production is relatively large. However, the accounting of specific impacts is still relatively complicated." Lu Bin said.
In addition, a large amount of Sinopec crude oil needs to be imported, and the decline in crude oil can reduce its cost. At the same time, due to the three reductions in refined oil prices, the refinery was under-employed and its inventory was too high, which also reduced its profit margin.
Song Zhichen, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that due to the continuous decline in crude oil prices and refined oil prices, the operating income of the two major oil companies has dropped significantly, and their business conditions will be affected.
At the same time, Song Zhichen also said that the three consecutive reductions in refined oil prices are very unfavorable news for the two major oil giants. The sales of refined oil products account for more than 50% of its main business. The sluggish quality of refined oil products will definitely affect its overall profitability. Oil exploration and development, crude oil import, smelting and other links will also have a chain of adverse reactions.
Zhuo Chuang Information expects that although the European debt crisis has been temporarily eased and the EU's embargo on Iran has formed a major positive support for international crude oil. However, the current global economic outlook is still not optimistic, and US crude oil inventories are at a high level. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to rebound in the late period, and the increase is relatively limited.
As for the price of crude oil and refined oil products will continue to fall in the second half of the year, many people in the industry think it remains to be seen.
A number of refined oil analysts told the "Securities Daily" reporter that after the "three consecutive losses" in the domestic refined oil market, it is expected that the recalculated rate of change of the three crude oils may show an upward trend, and the market is expected to rise, the domestic refined oil market The "four-day losing streak" may be temporarily stranded.
In addition, it is expected that in the third quarter of this year, due to the warming of the Iranian issue and the peak season of traditional oil products in Europe and the United States, oil prices will rebound in stages. However, as the prospects of the European debt crisis are still confusing, it is expected that the international oil price will continue to fluctuate downwards in the second half of this year, and the risk of high oil prices will not occur.
"And if crude oil prices continue to fall in the second half of the year and refined oil prices continue to fall, the profitability of the two major oil companies may hit a new low in four years, and some industrial chains have suffered losses or even serious losses." Song Zhichen said.
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