After leading the Chinese auto market for ten years, the SUV's limelight began to weaken. Data from the National Passenger Vehicles Association (hereinafter referred to as the “Chair”) and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”) all show that the growth rate of the SUV has been surpassed by the car.

In the eyes of some people in the industry, this is a sign that China's auto market is becoming mature. With the upgrading of consumption and people's more rational consumption of cars, the Chinese auto market will eventually become the same as foreign mature auto markets. The era of SUV outbreak is coming to an end. However, some people think that the Chinese auto market has its own particularity. Even if the growth rate of the SUV slows down, but the future market share exceeds the car and becomes the “boss” of the Chinese auto market, it is still a high probability event.

Regardless of whether or not SUVs can be "respected" in the Chinese auto market in the future, it is an indisputable fact that SUV growth is slowing down. For independent brands that are highly dependent on SUVs, this is obviously not good news. The challenges on the road to transformation and upgrading are many. layer.

Car "rare" overtake

Although the statistical caliber is not the same, statistics on the statistics of the two major industries in the Chinese auto industry show that the SUV's growth rate has been overtaken by the sedan.

According to data from the Federation of Travel Unions, sales of narrow passenger vehicles nationwide in April 2018 were 1.812 million, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year. Among them, 923,000 were passenger cars, up 10.5% year-on-year; SUVs were 753,000, up 10.4% year-on-year; MPVs were 135,500, down 0.1% year-on-year. Although there is only a slight 0.1%, this is a rare scene in the Chinese auto market where the SUV is booming for many years. In addition, the monthly sales championship in the passenger car market is no longer the SUV model. Dongfeng Nissan Sylphy (a sales of 34,467 units in April) takes advantage of hundreds of units, surpassing the SUV market's Evermore General Hover H6 (April sales of 34,014 units. ) Become a champion.

In May, a total of 1.803 million narrow-sale passenger vehicles were sold, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year; among them, 926,000 were sedan cars, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, and SUV sales were 740,000, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. SUV growth again fell behind the car, and the gap widened to 1.5%. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, a total of 1,889,400 passenger cars were sold in May, a year-on-year increase of 7.89%. Among them, 940,100 cars were sold, an increase of 12.09% year-on-year; SUV sales were 761,300, an increase of 6.51% year-on-year. The growth rate of the sedan is nearly double that of the SUV.

From the sales rankings, we can also see the trend of SUVs and cars in two major market segments. Sales in May showed that sales of the best-selling SUVs, including the Haval H6, Volkswagen Tiguan, Geely Boyue, and Chuanqi GS4, declined in the top ten SUV sales, with only 3 of the 10 models achieving positive growth. Of the top ten cars sold, only one car is negative, while the others are positive.

However, from January to May sales data, SUV growth is still significantly higher than the car. From January to May, a total of 9,908,800 passenger cars were sold, a year-on-year increase of 5.09%. Among them: 4,730,600 cars were sold, an increase of 4.75% year-on-year; SUV sales were 4,226,700, an increase of 11.66% year-on-year.

More than a decade ago, SUVs were new to the Chinese auto market. The car is the deserving boss and is the segment market that car companies value most. However, the Honda CR-V's hot fare increase launched in 2005 has allowed the industry to see the potential of the SUV segment, but in the following years, the focus of many car companies is still on the car.

However, with the RAV4, Volkswagen Tiguan, Biekekewei and other joint venture brands SUV launched after the hot section, coupled with the strong rise of independent brands focused on SUV Great Wall Motor, so that independent brand car companies fully understand the SUV market important. Since 2012, SUVs have become the focus of their own brands. No matter whether they are aggressively developing in recent years, such as Geely, GAC Chuanqi, SAIC Passenger Cars, or Baowo, the new brands that they want to base on, they are all heavy gold betting SUVs.

The sales volume of SUV also rose rapidly from 357,400 vehicles in 2007 to 10.25 million in 2017. The market share of passenger vehicles has also climbed from less than 6% in 2007 to more than 40% today. By contrast, in 2007, sedan sales were 4.726 million cars, and 2017 was 11.584 million cars. The growth rate was far lower than that of SUVs. It can be said that in the past ten years, the Chinese auto market has been driven by the SUV as a locomotive. However, with the continuous increase of the SUV market base and the overall growth of the Chinese auto market, the market growth of the SUV has also slowed down significantly. The data shows that the growth rate of SUV market segment from 2014 to 2016 was 36.19%, 59.93% and 43.41%, respectively, and it decreased to 13.32% in 2017. The growth rate in the first five months of this year further dropped to 11.66%.

SUV bonus ends?

The sales gap between SUVs and sedans is from a fraction of the sales volume of sedan cars in the early years. In 2013, there was a difference of nearly 9 million vehicles. In 2016, there was a difference of more than 3 million vehicles, and in 2017, it was only about 1.6 million. Industry insiders expect this year's sales of SUVs to exceed those of cars for the first time. But at this critical point, the SUV started to brake.

In the recent conference of the China Automobile Association, Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary-General of the China Automobile Industry Association, believes that on the one hand, the growth rate of the SUV after a few years of high-speed growth falls back to a reasonable level. On the other hand, the market share of cars has always been relatively small. Big, companies will not let go, and now many companies are rebuilding their A-class and B-class cars, trying to perfect their products and occupy more markets.

SUV market growth slowed down As expected by industry insiders, the end of the SUV market dividend has been a hot topic discussed by the automotive industry in recent years. Last year, Li Haigang, the former general manager of Peugeot Peugeot, warned in an interview that “SUV market segments have reached the ceiling of growth, and car companies should regain their focus on the car market.”

Li Haigang divided the development of China's SUV into three stages: Before 2013, it was the start of the SUV. At that time, it was not easy to find a suitable competitive product for SUVs. 2014-2016 is the popularity period of SUVs. It is the golden year of SUV development; 2017-2018 is the stable period of SUV, the growth rate is slowing down, consumption is upgraded, the market share is stable at about 40% of passenger cars; the market share of SUV will decline after 2019, and cars The proportion in the passenger car market will eventually be 3:7.

According to Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Federation of Travel Unions, “It is not a coincidence that SUV growth has been overtaken by cars. It has been brewing for a long time. Now that the SUV has been overtaken by the car is a symbolic turning point. The future SUV surge will be very difficult to emerge. The advantages of the sedan market will gradually be consolidated.” Some industry insiders believe that the story of the passenger car market in the future is likely to reverse, and the car will resume heating up, and the SUV will continue to cool down. However, some people do not think so.

“Where is the focus of China's auto market growth in the future? In the 3456 cities, these areas have poor road conditions, and the geographical environment and traffic are more complicated. People are more inclined to buy SUVs.” An independent brand car that does not want to be named Corporate sales executives believe that, given the special nature of the Chinese auto market, even if the SUV will no longer skyrocket, but in the proportion of the market and cars evenly higher than the car, are highly probable events. Market statistics also show that in the past five years, the main battlefield in the auto market has continued to sink. As early as in 2013, the sales volume of 3456 cities reached 60%, and consumers also prefer SUVs when buying cars.

Regardless of the future of the passenger car market, SUVs and sedan cars, the slowdown in the growth of the SUV market is an indisputable fact. This is very unfavorable for independent brands that have been severely affected by the SUV market in recent years and have almost given up the car market. Since last year, the desire of some weak self-owned brands to drive sales through SUV has run into trouble. Even car companies such as the Great Wall and Changan, which are very strong in the SUV sector, have slowed their growth rate due to changes in SUV products.

Among them, the performance is most obvious is to give up car Great Wall Motor focused on SUV, last year, Great Wall Motor sold a total of 1.07 million vehicles, down 0.4% year-on-year, 2018 January to May, Great Wall sales of 409,300, an increase of 3.29%. On the other hand, Geely Automobile, which has seized both cars and SUVs, sold 1.247 million vehicles in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 63%. In the first five months of 2018, Geely's total sales reached 638,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 44%.

In recent years, among the top ten cars sold, only one Geely emgrand was selected and the others were joint venture brands. As for the sedan market with traditional advantages, the investment of joint-venture car companies has continued unabated. The A-class car market has been replaced by LaVida and Bora this year. The B-class car market will be replaced by 2016. The Camry will complete its replacement last year and the Accord will be replaced this year. Various signs have shown that independent brands should re-add the car market.

However, Cui Dongshu believes that the SUV's market dividend still exists, and the key is to see how the car companies grasp. Li Haigang also believes: “The trend of SUV consumption upgrade is very obvious. In the future, mid-to-high-end SUVs will continue to grow, while the low-end SUV market will decline.” The low-end SUV segment is the main battlefield for self-owned brands. In the past two or three years, in the top ten list of SUV sales, its own brands accounted for about six seats, but most of them sold for less than RMB 150,000.



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