China's passenger vehicle market continues to give power in 2011

In 2011, we conducted on-site grassroots research or telephone interviews with passenger car dealers in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chengdu and Zhengzhou. Aiming at the current prosperity of the passenger car market, the trend of the passenger car market in 2011, and the policies and measures that these cities may take to deal with traffic congestion, the impact of the demand for local passenger car products and other issues were discussed with these car dealers. In-depth communication. Industry analysts believe that the passenger car market in 2011 will continue to give momentum and will drive the rapid development of the high-end automotive lubricant market.

The start of the passenger car market in January is expected to be a foregone conclusion. As the policies for the purchase of small-displacement vehicles, tax incentives for cars to the countryside and the trade-in policy for old cars are all closed at the end of 2010, the peak season effect of passenger car consumption and the effect of the last bus policy will be superimposed. The sales of passenger cars driven in November and December are very good. At the end of December, the inventory level at the dealer’s hand was very low. In January, the passenger car dealerships generally had the need to make up the inventory; at the same time, due to the effects of pre-holiday consumption, it is expected that the terminal data of passenger car sales in January 2011 will remain. It will be very good, wholesale and retail booming, dealer inventory levels at the end of January will still be very low, and it is expected that the inventory equivalent of passenger car dealers will not exceed 2 weeks. Therefore, the wholesale volume in February, that is, the sales volume of the manufacturers will still be good; according to the number of sales reports released by the CLUCC in the first 3 weeks of January, it is expected that the sales of passenger car products in January will increase by more than 20% year-on-year.

The probability of sales of passenger cars in March exceeded market expectations. In March, the sales of passenger car products may exceed the more cautious expectations in the current market, and the basis for such judgments is: 1) In 2011, the macroeconomic situation in China is expected to be better than in 2008, and the consumer’s short-term expectation And the willingness to consume does not occur as large downward fluctuations as it did in 2008; 2) In 2011, as incentives for encouraging automobile consumption are only subsidy policies for small-displacement energy-saving models, manufacturers must increase sales efforts because, In 2012, the new production capacity of various manufacturers will be gradually released, and no one vehicle manufacturer will tolerate its own market share before the release of production capacity. According to our analysis, in 2011, the discount rate of vehicle manufacturers targeting small-displacement vehicles will exceed the sum of subsidies granted by the state in encouraging car consumption in 2009 and 2010, and the preferential rate for large-displacement vehicles will also exceed the total. year 2010. It is expected that sales in March will still be able to increase by more than 15% on the basis of a higher base in March 2010, and the sales growth of passenger vehicle products in the year is expected to exceed 15%.

The Guangzhou blockade is not limited to licensing, and the short-term policy risks are released. After the introduction of the Beijing restriction policy on December 24th, the market worried that other cities might follow up the restriction. On January 8th, Guangzhou introduced a discussion paper on the management of the blockage plan, which proposed that the blockage measures should be divided into three categories: “build, manage, and limit”. Unlike Beijing, the Guangzhou blockade program does not involve restricting the content of motor vehicle licenses. It is mainly used to control blockage at the time of use, including the possibility of congesting blocking fees and not limiting purchases. After the limit trading in Beijing, the biggest concern of the market is whether Guangzhou will follow up. This discussion paper does not cover the restricted content. We believe that the risk of short-term automobile policy is released.

Considering the demand for updates, the Beijing purchase restriction policy will affect the sales volume of the whole vehicle in 11 years by about 1 percentage point. Industry analysts believe that we estimate that the Beijing limit-limit policy will affect the total vehicle sales in the 11-year period by about 2 percentage points. Considering Beijing’s annual reserves of 4.7 million vehicles, considering updating demand will affect the 11-year total vehicle sales volume by about 1 percentage point. There is little impact on car demand in the year. Even if more local governments introduce policies to deal with traffic congestion, it is expected that the demand for passenger car products will have a very limited impact. Judging from what we currently know, cities such as Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, and Chengdu also have plans to manage traffic congestion. However, the degree of traffic congestion in these cities is much lower than that in Beijing, and the vehicle ownership is also far below. In Beijing, there is no need to imitate Beijing's restrictions on the purchase of passenger cars; these cities follow the example of Guangzhou not restricting the purchase of passenger cars, but guiding consumers to rational use of passenger cars will be the main tone of the program. Recently, officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have also stated that it is not in order to restrict the automobile industry.

We expect that the impact of policies on traffic jams in other cities that are commonly worried about in the market will be far lower than market expectations and the market’s fears will be overdone.