It is unpredictable that the auto market is sluggish.

After four months of suffering, manufacturers and distributors are eager to have a round of sales growth, reduce inventory in full warehouses, and gracefully dress up ugly financial statements. Perhaps they can find some good news from the just-released August sales data. According to the latest data released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (hereinafter referred to as “China Railway”), in August, the sales volume was 1,215,500 vehicles, both a month-on-month and year-on-year growth. The sales of passenger cars were 977,300, an increase of 59.26% year-on-year. China National Automotive Research and Technology Co., Ltd. judged that it rebounded strongly after experiencing a sales trough in July and entered the sales season ahead of schedule. However, if we judge the auto market to enter a strong growth channel in this regard, it will be too early to be optimistic.

The huge dealer team first jumped out and opposed: "If the terminal sales price does not rebound, the growth of the auto market will not really occur." Hu Hui, general manager of Shanghai Huanlian, said, "The price war is still bloody!"

The auto company's judgment began to show a clear differentiation. Optimistic has a general manager of GAC Changfeng, Fu Shoujie, who believes that: in the second half of the auto market, it will be low and high! The third quarter will continue in the second quarter of the off-season, but the fourth quarter will rise month by month. Dongfeng Citroen Deputy General Manager Wei Wenqing also believes that the off-season of the auto market will not change the overall situation in the fourth quarter.

Dongfeng Honda executive deputy general manager Chen Binbo is cautiously optimistic that dealer channels and factory inventory have exceeded 1.5 million vehicles. Such high inventory has already made vulnerable channels overwhelmed. “If manufacturers still insist on pressing down, if the terminal There is no significant improvement, and it is not ruled out that the automobile market will shrink dramatically in the fourth quarter."

The majestic development of the past year has caused too many people to lose market judgment. Those who do production plans can not wait to turn back the clock. Taking into account the huge supporting system and logistics system, the production of cars is generally more than six months ahead of schedule. Even if there are large fluctuations in the market, the response and adjustment mechanisms of automakers lag behind. After the “recall door incident” occurred at the end of last year, the Toyota branded vehicle model retail market experienced a substantial downturn, but due to the slow adjustment of spare parts supply and production cycle, it was not until May that production reductions began.

However, unlike April to July, there were many good news coming from the auto market in August. The most gratifying thing was the reduction in inventory, and the efforts of auto makers to “destock” had begun to show remarkable results. The auto inventory cycle in August was 57 days, which was a decrease of 1 day from July, in which the inventory cycle of passenger cars was reduced from 60 days to 58 days.

The downturn in the auto market has lasted for four months. Therefore, as early as May, the main engine plant began to take the initiative or was reduced production, and for four consecutive months, there was “more production than sales”. In August, the output of autos was “low-opening and high-going”, and the output of four natural-week vehicles was 21.93 million units, 237,600 units, 307,400 units, and 329,400 units respectively, which increased from week to week. This is related to the fact that most companies in the south of China suffered from high-temperature production in early August. However, starting in the second half of the month, everyone began to work in tandem with active production, and they are gearing up for the upcoming “Golden 9 Silver 10” traditional peak season.

However, before the inventory of up to 1.5 million passenger cars has completely improved, once the terminal retail price has not really stabilised, once the impulse to “Jin 9 Silver 10” prevails, it is not impossible for the fragile market to turn around again.