According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s automobile production and sales were respectively 17.482 million and 17.4932 million in the first 11 months of this year, an increase of 4.5% and 4% respectively over the same period of last year. According to the average growth rate, China's automobile production and sales are expected to exceed 19 million vehicles this year.

In fact, since 2001, the average annual growth rate of production and sales in the Chinese auto market has exceeded 20%. In just 10 years or so, the sales volume has increased from 2 million vehicles to more than 18 million, and has been jumped by an important emerging market. Become the world's largest automotive market. This growth rate and development model are rare in the development of the global automotive industry. However, starting from 2011, China’s auto market has slowed down under the influence of complex economic and market environment factors. If this year goes smoothly to the stage of 19 million vehicles, market growth will remain single digits. Therefore, in 2012, the subject of China's auto industry can be expressed without any dispute as adjustment and change. For the majority of auto manufacturers, they are more clearly aware that China's auto industry is transitioning from the emerging market opportunity period to the mature market development period. How to adjust ideas and adapt to this new development situation will determine the level of development of the company in the coming decade.

As a long-term observer of this industry, we tried to use the five key words to outline the outline of the 2012 Chinese automobile and to attack the core of industrial development.

Micro growth

We can look at such a set of data first. In 2008, the total sales volume of China's auto market was 9.3805 million units; in 2009 it reached 13.621 million units; in 2010, it sold a total of 18,004,900 units; by 2011, it had sales of 18.5334 million units. The growth rate continues to slow down. How do we interpret?

Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Department of the National Information Center, said: "This year's auto market continues to operate at a low speed. The so-called low speed can be seen. So far, the growth rate of demand from January to September is only 2.8%, with the speed of the past ten years. The gap is big, continuous is continuous, last year was low growth, and this year is low growth.” But for the micro-growth that is currently defined in the industry, Xu Changming has his own understanding. He said that according to the analysis of leading countries in the global automotive market, the development of the automotive market in each country has two periods of rapid growth. The first period of rapid growth is from five thousand cars to 1,000 people and 20 vehicles. This is the fastest period. The average sales growth rate is about 30%, and the duration is relatively short, about five years. The first high-speed period of our country was from 2001 to 2008, with an average annual rate of 30.4%. In 2001, the number of people in our fleet reached 4.7, and in 2008 we reached 21 thousand; the second period of high-speed growth is from thousands. The 20 vehicles have been extended to 130 people for 1,000 people, probably lasting for about 10 years. The annual growth rate of sales is 20%. In 2009, China began to theoretically enter a second period of rapid growth. However, due to the revitalization plan of the automobile industry, we put the speed on the contrary, and now it has slipped. It is also normal. He judged that in the second period of rapid growth, determined by the structural characteristics of our country's economy, the time will be relatively long, probably about 15 years, and the average annual speed is relatively low. "But there is still a long time from micro growth."

Digesting inventory

Inventory pressure has become a common problem faced by many car dealers this year. Due to the slowdown in market growth, declining demand, and the impact of manufacturers on speeding up the expansion of network layout, automobile dealers generally suffer from large inventory problems, and one after another "price war" once again stuck to the lifeblood of dealer development. According to a national car dealer inventory coefficient survey results, in October this year, more than 80% of dealers have an average inventory of more than 1.5 months, and some even reached 2.5 months.

He Liming, chairman of the China Automobile Circulation Industry Association, said that the growth of the entire new car market this year is in a slow growth trend, and the stable development of the market is facing very severe challenges. He believes that since 2010, the country’s policy of encouraging automobile consumption has caused blowouts in the auto market at that time, but it also overdrawn the market today. In the past two years, all regions have adopted limit line purchases, which has had a greater impact on the automotive market. At the same time, some imported brand suppliers are overestimating the Chinese market, and as a result, the inventory level remains high.

The reporter also observed that many luxury brands have placed their hopes on the Chinese market this year. To seize more market share, the competition between various brands started at the beginning of the year, and once the “benchmark” model price cuts, it will quickly get other The response of mainstream brands. From the beginning of the year, Mercedes-Benz E-Class and S-Class took the lead in cutting prices, followed by models such as the BMW 7 Series and the Audi A8L. The luxury car market prices fluctuate drastically. For luxury brand dealers who have been accustomed to good days, they have increased their prices and sold cars to the current price reductions. They have actually experienced the excitement of a “high roller coaster”.

own brand

2012 is a difficult year for Chinese auto brands. The pressure and challenges faced by independent brands are continuously increasing. Li Jun, chairman of the International Society of Automotive Engineers, said that the future of China's own brands can't stay at the low end of the manufacturing industry, and competition based on low prices is not sustainable. Autonomous brand auto companies that entered the strategic transition period in succession did not come up with more new products to storm the market in 2012, but prefer to slow down the pace of development, take the initiative to adjust, and reposition and consider the future development at the strategic level. Selective and tangible results have made it possible to find the path that is most in line with its own development on the road of differential competition. This brand-new idea is obviously a step forward for our young, self-owned brand auto companies.

We have seen that although Chery Automobile's new products are "zero in delivery" this year, the strategic layout is increasingly clear. On November 6, Guangzhou Automobile Group and Chery Automobile signed a cooperation framework agreement in Beijing. The first strategic alliance formed by two independent brand car companies was born. According to the agreement, GAC and Chery will cooperate and share technologies, such as research and development of complete vehicles, core components and new energy, and system capacity building in the next three years to achieve complementary advantages, win-win development, and jointly enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. . For this landmark incident, relevant experts said that this has opened up new ideas for the Chinese auto industry to accelerate the development of independent brands under the current situation.

New energy vehicle

On July 9 this year, the State Council officially issued the “2012-2020 Development Plan for Energy-saving and New-energy Automobile Industry”, which clarified the two goals of sales volume and energy consumption, implying that the policy-making departments are in the technical route and promotion model of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. The unceasing controversy has finally reached a unity, and the development path of China's new energy auto industry has gradually become clear. On December 3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicized the preliminary “Project to be supported by the 2012 New Energy Automotive Industry Technology Innovation Project”. From the list, the 25 projects include pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles and power battery projects, involving Jianghuai Automobile, Dongfeng Automobile, Changan Automobile, BYD, Great Wall Motors, SAIC, etc. car company.

Obviously, the introduction of "Planning" has played a good role in the development of China's new energy vehicles. However, the problem that cannot be avoided is that at this stage, the development of new energy vehicles will not be dominant in terms of technology, safety, profitability and other aspects. Compared with previous years, this year in the field of new energy vehicles, the policy highlights more than the market highlights, but also shows that China's new energy automotive industry is moving toward standardization; past disorderly competition, the development of staking style will also reveal some problems. Relevant statistics show that in the first 10 months of this year, China's major passenger car companies sold a total of 7713 new energy vehicles, and most of the electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are mostly used by automobile companies and local government agencies in the public transport sector. Demonstration operation carried out, the market demand is weak. Therefore, in this year's slowdown in the growth of traditional automobile production and sales, the auto companies' enthusiasm for new energy vehicles is not worse than in previous years, and the wait-and-see mood has cooled for this continuing “high fever” area.

Frequent policy

In 2012, the relevant government departments introduced automobile policies and regulations very intensively. Including the Regulations on the Administration of Production of Passenger Vehicles and Products Accessed on January 1st of this year, the Measures for the Administration of Collection of Vehicle Purchase Taxes, and the Measures for the Calculation of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicles, and January 30th. The implementation of the "Industrial Catalogue for Foreign Investment", the "2012 Catalogue of Selected Vehicles for Official Vehicles of the Party and Government Organs" published on February 24, and the four national standards for the electric car charging interface and communication protocol implemented on March 1st, " Guidelines for Air Quality Assessment in Passenger Vehicles, National Safety Standards for Special School Buses Implemented on May 1st, and “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Planning (2012-2020)”, released on July 9, formally implemented on July 24th The "Regulations on the Exemption of Small Passenger Car Tolls from Major Holidays" approved by the State Council and the "Regulations on Recalling Defective Automobile Product Management" reviewed and passed at the 219th Executive Meeting of the State Council on October 10 can cover all aspects of the development of the automobile industry.

The greatest impact on the auto industry at the policy level is undoubtedly the further expansion of the purchase restriction policy. After China's auto market has experienced explosive growth, some contradictions that have been rapidly covered up have gradually emerged. In particular, at the same time as the increase in the number of car ownership, road construction, parking facilities and other hardware facilities as well as the literacy of civilized vehicles have not been correspondingly improved. This is also a problem we will face for a long time after we enter the automobile society. Following Shanghai and Beijing, this year Guangzhou has also introduced a purchase restriction policy. With the increase in the number of car ownership, purchase restrictions are likely to become more and more options for governance congestion in big cities.

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